Resources Allocation And Optimization In Mass Disaster

Based on the idea of "disaster scenario analysis and demand forecasting-emergency resource location-emergeney resource reserve,emergency resource allocation",this paper takes the destructive earthquake disaster as the research background,combined with the emergency resource and emergency management characteristics.Withing the theory of disaster science,mathematical programming,decision theory and method and Aregis geographic information system,this paper systematically studied the normal and emergency management of large-scale earthquake disaster relief resources,and realized the prediction of earthquake relief resources for the goavernment accurate prediction-rational location·reserve savings-efficient deployment"to provide theoretical support.Firstly,the seismic scenarios are analyzed by means of the combination of earthquake location,magnitude,intens.ity,number of victims and emergency materials,and the advantages of the historical situation and the worst case generation method are put forward.Based on the analysis of the factors affecting the casualties in the earthquake disaster,the multi-level BP neural network prediction model is constructed by extractitng the key influencing factors from the dimensionality reduction of the multivariate data.The characteristics of the emergency materials classification and emergency supplies are studied.Out based on the number of victims and the Ministry of Civil Affairs disaster relief norms to estimate the demand for emergency supplies.Secondly,the integration of emergency resource layout issues were studied.Considering the reachability of emergency resources and the coverage and so on,the multi-stage optimization model of emergency prepared zoning is established.Based on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of earthquake risk in China,the fuzzy comprehensive method is used to study the location plan of emergency resource reserve.The Voronoi diagram and buffer analysis technique are used to study the response structure of emergency response partition and different time limit.The relationship between the number of reserves and the contingency of emergency.Thirdly,we study how to reduce the cost of reserves through the multi-agent emergency resources joint reserve of government and enterprise,under the premise of guaranteeing the efficiency of rescue.This paper from the perspective of stakeholder analysis analyzes the characteristics of different reserves of government and enterprises,and constructs the risk profit and loss function in emergency mode under different combination reserve modes;studies the relationship between reserve level and price level of the enterprise physical reserve and production capacity reserve,and the reserve strategy and equilibrium price of enterprise emergency supplies under stochastic demand based on the newsboy model;proposes the government and corporate physical reserves and production capacity portfolio reserve model optimization strategy.Finally,under the framework of the multi-agent joint reserve system of the government emergency,through the investigation of the actual emergency management department,the paper analyzes the ways of raising the emergency materials and several typical emergency supply chain structures.In this paper,the emergency resource allocation is divided into two stages,and the two-stage model of earthquake emergency resource is raising-allocating two stages model.First of all taking into account the earthquake disaster,when the amount of emergency supplies provided by the government reserves cannot meet the needs of the disaster point,call near the enterprise storage of emergency supplies.The second is how to distribute the emergency supplies of the cemergency supplies temporary storage ccenter(Emergency supplies transit station)to the demand point.Finally,combined with historical cases and data,we analyzed studies.Conclusions provide decision support and reference for the government in the multi-agent reserve mode of emergeney resource allocation decision.