The Impact Of Bilateral Political Relations On Sino-Russian Trade

With the deepening of the process of economic globalization,the political interaction between countries is increasingly frequent,and the trade cooperation is increasingly close.The influence of political relations between countries on bilateral trade has attracted more and more attention of scholars in the field of world economy.As a world power,Russia is also China's largest neighbor and comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination.In the 1990 s,China and Russia reestablished friendly relations.The two sides gradually regarded each other as their important strategic cooperative partners.At present,China Russia relations have reached the best period in history.At the same time,bilateral trade cooperation between China and Russia has also developed.From 2001 to 2017,the bilateral trade volume of the two countries increased from US $10.67 billion to US $84.07 billion,and the trade dependence between China and Russia has been increasing.However,compared with the bilateral political relations,the development of Sino Russian trade is still lagging behind,and there is still great potential and space for the development of Sino Russian trade.What role does the bilateral political relations play in Sino Russian trade? It will be of great academic value and practical significance to study the influence of political relations between China and Russia on bilateral trade.The scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of research on the influence of bilateral political relations on bilateral trade.The general conclusions are drawn.The influence of bilateral political relations on bilateral trade is positive,that is,the trade volume between countries increases with the friendship of political relations,and decreases with the deterioration of political relations.But sometimes there are differences due to different regions and periods: the influence of political relations between one country and different countries on bilateral trade is different;the influence of political relations between two countries on bilateral trade is also different in different periods.This dissertation takes the influence of bilateral political relations on Sino Russian trade since the independence of Russia as the research object,selects the annual data of China and Russia from 1992 to 2017,and uses the comprehensive analysis method combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis to explore the influence degree and influence way of the political relations between China and Russia on Sino Russian trade.The method of quantitative analysis plays an important role in the research of this dissertation.This dissertation improves some old methods and gives some new methods,and applies them to the analysis of the influence of political relations between China and Russia on bilateral trade.The dissertation puts forward the concepts and calculation methods of measuring the level of trade between the two countries to analyze the relevant indexes of Sino Russian trade,such as trade difference index,bilateral trade dependence,bilateral trade familiarity,bilateral trade coupling and trade balanced development index.The dissertation also improves the comprehensive evaluation method of distance,measures the comprehensive trade level of China and Russia,puts forward the rate correlation analysis method,and analyzes the influence of bilateral political relations between China and Russia on bilateral trade.This dissertation draws a conclusion through empirical analysis,in each period,the political relationship between China and Russia is positively related to bilateral trade,and has the following characteristics: when the political relationship changes greatly,trade obviously changes in the same direction,but the influence of political relationship between China and Russia on trade in each period is different;when the political relationship changes slowly,trade may fluctuate,but the amplitude is unknown When the political relationship is in a more friendly state,the negative change of political relationship has more obvious influence on trade than the positive change;when the political relationship is in a more tense state,the positive change of political relationship has more obvious influence on trade than the negative change.At present,the level of bilateral trade cooperation between China and Russia is far from the level of political cooperation.The share of trade with Russia in China's total foreign trade is not large.The comprehensive trade level between China and Russia ranks only the eighth among the ten countries,such as China,the United States and so on.This is an explanation for the academic circles that the trade between China and Russia lags behind politics.Although the trade volume between China and Russia rebounded in 2017,reaching US $84.07 billion,but it will not be easy to achieve the goal of US $200 billion set by the leaders of the two countries by 2020 according to this progress.