Research On Local Government Urban Land Supply Decision:Quantity And Reserve Price

In China's urban land market,the local government plays a key role as the monopoly land supplier,the land market manager,and the agent of the central government.Local government's land supply decision significantly affects the allocation of land resources,the performance of the land market,and the implementation of land policies,crucial to the healthy development of the real estate market.This thesis identifies influencing factors and core contents of local government land supply decisions under China's urban land supply system.In addition,this thesis systematically analyzes local government's Macro-land supply quantity decision and Micro-land reserve price decision under the influence of local government's utility,urban land market performances and central government interventions through theoretical and empirical models.Firstly,based on the background of the land supply system and the characteristics of the land market in urban China,this thesis identifies three types of key influencing factors of two types of core land supply decisions.The key factors include local government's utility,urban land market performance and central government intervention;and the core decisions are the Macro-land supply quantity decision and the Micro-land reserve price decision.Then a theoretical model is established based on the partial equilibrium theory and the auction theory,to analyze the mechanism of local government's decisions on the related macro land quantity and micro land reserve price under the cross-impact of three types of factors.Finally,using macro data and microdata,this thesis empirically investigates local governments' macro and micro land supply decisions as well as their impacts on urban land market performances,for residential,commercial,and industrial lands,respectively.Influences of three types of factors are discussed one by one in the empirical research section.Key finds are as follows.Firstly,local governments make land supply decisions on both the macro and micro level.The Macro-land supply quantity decision and the Micro-land reserve price decision are independent and interrelated in influencing urban land market performances.Secondly,as the monopoly land supplier,local government land supply decisions are significantly affected by urban macroeconomic conditions and government officials' characters under the utility maximization.The decision on residential and commercial land supply is driven by urban land rents,and the decision on residential and industrial land supply is motived by political promotions.Thirdly,land market regulation is also the objective of local government as the market manager.Driven by this objective,local governments make dynamic land supply decisions based on their learning of demand information from the market performance in the early stage,which eventually affect the market performance in this stage and leads to the periodic fluctuation of the volume and price of land transactions.Fourthly,as the agent of the central government,local governments make land supply decisions under interventions of the central government,but agency problems are found in their agency decisions.Finally,this thesis puts efforts to propose effective and targeted policy implications for building a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market,from the perspective of improving local governments' decision-making wisdom in land supply,granting local governments main responsibility in land market regulation,and improving the central-local principal-agent relationship.