A Study Of Out-migration In Northeast China And Its Economic Influence

Recent years,the out-migration and the slowing down of economic growth have aroused widespread concern in Northeast China.The issue of out-migration and its economic influence to Northeast China has become a hot topic in academic circles.For the reasons that cause the Northeast China'economic growth slow down,the existing literature views are summarized as follows: 1.In the Northeast China,the planned economy remains the remnants,it lacks of institutional innovation and leads to a poor market environment.2.The economic structure of the northeast region is unreasonable,the state-owned economy is relatively high,the pace of reform of state-owned enterprises is slow and it is excessively dependent on investment driven.3.The strategy of "unbalanced development" of regional economy,it gives priority to the development of the eastern coastal areas,in addition to the key strategy render Northeast China drift away the national strategies,the economic status has been severely impacted.At present,from the view of population exodus to analysis this topic is less.The existing research results mostly from the perspective of qualitative analysis explains this issue.In this paper,we makes an empirical analysis of the population exodus in Northeast China and its economic influence in this area from the perspective of quantitative analysis.By consulting the data of the fifty-five year statistical data of new China,we combed the evolution process of population migration in Northeast China,the population flow in the Northeast region is gradually transferred from the period of the planned economy period to the period of net outflow after the reform and opening policy.It is found that the opening reform policy is the watershed of the transformation of the migration form of the population in the Northeast China.Between the founding of the People's Republic of China to the reform and opening up policy,northerst as the old industrial base that supported by the state has attracted the population from all over the country in the process of construction and development.In this period,the migration form of the Northeast China was manifested as net population inflow.After1980's,the government start to carried out the reform of the economic system in China.Northeast China because of lack of the advantage of geography,which leaded to it gradually behind the eastern region in the area of economic development.The change of these reasons that resulted the Northeast China's population migration pattern fundamentally change from the original net inflows into the net outflow.Make further efforts,through the calculation and arrangement of the fifth national census data?the sixth national census data statistical data,it is found that the population' exodus in the Northeast China is constantly increasing.The sixth national census data shows that the exodus population of the Northeast China is mainly concentrated in the economically developed regions or provinces.Such as Beijing?Tianjin?Hebei?the Yangtze River Delta?the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region?Shandong?Guangdong and so on.It also shows that the out-migration in Northeast China presents a certain regional aggregation in the choice of flow direction,and the economic factor is still the most important factor of its exodus.This paper used the dynamic monitoring data collected by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of PRC on floating population to analyze he characteristics of outflow population in Northeast China.Summarizes the general features of the out-migration form three dimensions of demographic characteristics?socio-economic characteristics and the characteristics of the flow process.In terms of demographic characteristics,the outflow population in the northeast is mainly rural population,but the proportion of non-agricultural population is also very large,which is a major feature of the northeast region's outflow of population.The highly educated population's exodus is prominent.Which reflects the current economic growth in the northeast lack of vitality,it can not retain the top talent population.In order to realize their own value,those highly educated population chose the more and more employment opportunities?the development of a large space in the eastern developed area to work after graduation.In terms of socio-economic characteristics: Because of its own limitations-the accumulation of human capital,the outflow of population is mainly engaged in low skilled work in the local labor,in order to avoid the possible risks in life and work,they usually have a strong sense of self-protection to take part in all kinds of insurance.The overall employment level of the out-migration is not high in the local area,and due to the care of the family and other reasons,the female unemployment rate is higher.Although most population have a higher income level in the local area.Due to the reasons of high housing prices in the big cities,the quality of their life is not satisfactory,most of them mainly depend on renting private houses.At the same time,most of them will be in the bottom in big cities,they were forced to up against the dilemma of permanent settlement in future.In terms of the flow process: It shows that the exodus population have been away from the northeast for a long time,especially the well-educated population.Most of them have lived in other areas for more than 6 years,they have a longer flowing life and most of them have the will to reside in their place of residence,they do not plan to return.They have left their hometown for a long time,they have been accustomed to the local language habits and customs,they also established their own life in location.They showed a higher identity.In fact,they have settled down.For the not well-educated out-migration,due to the limited of capital accumulation?low income level and lack of economic capacity.It is difficult for them to undertake the high cost of the full citizenization,they possibly continuing to "flow" in future,they yet has not formed a stable residence status.Due to the advantages of transportation or geographical location,and the close proximity of language and customs,the eastern region is ahead of the central and western regions in providing jobs and employment opportunities,so most of the northeast population flow to the more developed eastern part,while there is only a small part population flow to the central and western regions.There are some certain differences between individuals that flowed into different regions.The population flowed to the East of China is more advantageous in the featurese of education and household registration.The population that flowed into the central region are mainly of the older?labor-intensive and labor-intensive agricultural men.The population that flowed to the western area are mainly the older agricultural population.By using the dynamic monitoring data collected by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of PRC on floating of 2015 to analyze the flow choice of the population in Northeast China and its influential factors.The research indicates that the flow choice of the population in Northeast China is affected by three characteristics of individual characteristics?human capital characteristics and family characteristics.In terms of family characteristics,the number of children is beneficial to the outflow of the population in the Northeast,while the variable that elderly over 60 years hindered the long-distance flow of the population in Northeast China.Made use of the 2013 and 2015 dynamic monitoring data to analyzes the reasons that arouse the out-migration of northeast China.We found that economic reason is the main reasons,the social reason is secondary.Although the proportions of the reasons have undergone a obvious change,the proportion of migrant workers dropped significantly,the proportion of social migrants,such as family members and friends and relatives,has risen markedly.But the pursuit of economic income is still the most important reason for the out-migration in Northeast China,there will be no fundamental change in the trend of economically-oriented.There were certain differences among the individuals of different migration decisions.Due to the outflow of workers in business people,they have left the Northeast earlier,they were less-educated,engaged in low skilled jobs.Most of them are male,there's long-term residence tendency is not clear,In the future they likely reflux to home.However,because of the reasons that family members' migration,most of the population who had been out of Northeast China,they had a good educational background.In fact,they have settled down and they will not have the chance to return to Northeast China.Based on the 2015 dynamic monitoring data collected by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of PRC on floating population to analysis of Population' migration decision,it is found that the individual characteristics?human capital characteristics and regional characteristics of outflow population all have some influence on their migration decision-making,different groups' migration decision and its factors have similarities and differences.By making panel models to analyzes the impact of out-migration on the economic to Northeast China.The research shows that out-migtation hindered the economic development overall.However,exist certain difference in the impact of population outflows on the province's economic growth.the outflow of population in Jilin Province and Liaoning Province has a certain positive effect on stimulating the economic growth,while to some extent the outflow of population in Heilongjiang Province weakened the economic growth of the province.The out-migration has widened the economic gap between the northeast region and the main population flow direction.However,the effect of the economic gap between the outflow of population in Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces is opposite to that of the population disparity in Liaoning province to the regional disparity.Population outflow is beneficial to narrowing the average economic gap between Liaoning Province and the three main flow direction,but it is not beneficial to narrowing the average economic gap between Jilin?Liaoning provinces with the three main flow direction.The out-migration is helpful to increase the proportion of secondary industry of Northeast China,the research showed that out-migration can increase the proportion of the secondary industry output value of the three provinces.But there are significant differences in the degree of this influence,Liaoning Province has the largest extent,Heilongjiang Province has the smallest degree.The last chapter is the conclusion and the policy suggestion section.On the basis of summarizing and organizing the important conclusions obtained in this study.Combining with the actual situation of economic and social development of Northeast China,we put forward some feasible policies to delay its population' exodus.