The Impact Of Chinese Fertility Policy On Deviation Of Fertility Intentions And Behavior

China’s total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level.To cope with this reality,China began to adjust the family planning policy that has been implemented for nearly four decades in 2013.From 2013 to 2016,the selective two child policy and the universal two child policy were introduced successively.A large number of surveys on fertility intention before the policy was issued showed that the adjustment of the policy would significantly improve the existing fertility level.However,after the policy was implemented,a large number of studies showed that the policy adjustment did not produce significant effects,that it was not reliable to predict the actual fertility level with fertility intention,and that there was a deviation between fertility intention and fertility behavior.This paper will explain the effects of different childbearing policies before and after policy adjustment from the perspective of inconsistency between fertility intention and fertility behavior.By establishing a model according to the theoretical frame put forward by Bongaarts,which focuses on study of low fertility rate and by using Binary Logistic Regression,the paper tries to analyze the data of Chinese General Social Survey in 2015 to explore the Impact of childbearing policies between discrepancy of fertility Intentions and behavior.At the same time,in order to solve the endogenous problem,the paper use difference-in-difference model to explore the net effect by childbearing policies.The results show that the one child policy has significantly accelerated the deviation between the fertility intention and the fertility behavior of Chinese residents,while the selective two child policy has no significant effect on the inconsistency between the fertility intention and the fertility behavior.Therefore,the role of the one child policy is gradually inoperative.In the future,it will be limit impact for the one child policy on residents’ fertility intentions and effect on fertility behavior.The policy can only provide residents a relatively loose environment of reproductive choice,whether to have a child is mainly because of other factors such as economy and culture.Thus,the implementation of the fertility policy should focus on accelerating the transformation,from regulating the number to paying attention to the supporting development of the family,to solve the family in all aspects of worries,and finally in order to effectively improve the level of fertility.