| The change of population structure has a great impact on the reform and development of social insurance,which can not be excluded at China and abroad.Since the 1980 s,the changes of population structure and the reform of the social insurance system in China's have provided an excellent sample for the study of the relationship between the changes in population structure and the social insurance system.In recent years,great changes have taken place in the natural structure of the population,the social structure of the population and the regional structure of the population.The change of population structure has a great influence on the income level or the expenditure level of social insurance.Under the change of population structure,it is necessary to evaluate the change of social insurance expenditure caused by the change of population structure.Through reviewing the existing research at home and abroad,we find that the research on the impact of population structure on social insurance expenditure is still in a relatively preliminary stage.Many literatures equate the population structure as the age structure of the population,ignoring other aspects of the population structure,such as regional structure and social structure.When they study the influence of population structure on economic variables,they only study the influence of one single aspect of population structure,neglecting the influence of family factors and marriage factors.While the emphasis on population structure changes is not enough in the study of social insurance sustainability.Based on the existing research at home and abroad and the relevant theories of demography and economics,we analysis the current situation of population structure and social insurance expenditure in China.This paper empirically analyses the influence of natural,social and regional structure of population on the expenditure level of basic endowment insurance for urban workers,basic medical insurance for urban workers and basic medical insurance for urban residents.We predict the natural,social and regional structure of the population.Combining with the empirical results,this paper forecasts the expenditure level of basic endowment insurance for urban workers,basic medical insurance for urban workers and basic medical insurance for urban residents in 2018-2030.Firstly,we summarize the realistic background of population structure and social insurance,previous research results and current development status.Based on the analysis of population structure and the development of social insurance,we established the main problems concerned in this paper.Secondly,we study the impact of population structure changes on the basic old-age insurance for urban workers,basic medical insurance for urban workers and basic medical insurance expenditure for urban residents.By using GMM model to analyze the panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions,the research results are obtained:1.For the expenditure level of urban workers' endowment insurance,the urban children's dependency ratio,the urban elderly dependency ratio in the natural population structure,the average size of urban households in the population social structure and the marital status of urban residents have a positive impact on it.The average education level of urban residents in the population social structure,the urbanization level in the population regional structure and the mobility level of urban residents have a negative impact on it.In terms of different regions with different levels of economic development,the positive effects of the old-age dependency ratio of urban population and the sex ratio of urban population in the middle and western regions are smaller than those in the eastern regions.The positive effects in the middle regions are larger than those in the western regions.The positive impact of urban child support ratio on the middle and western regions is smaller than that on the eastern regions,and the positive impact on the middle regions is smaller than that on the western regions.The level of education has a negative impact on the pension insurance expenditure of urban workers in the eastern region,and has a greater negative impact on the pension insurance expenditure of urban workers in the middle region.The urbanization rate and the floating population rate in cities and towns have a greater negative impact on the middle part of the country.2.For the expenditure level of basic medical insurance for urban workers,the urban elderly dependency ratio in the natural population structure,the proportion of the tertiary industry employees in the population social structure,and the urbanization level in the population regional structure have a positive impact on it.The dependency ratio of urban children in the natural population structure,the average education level of urban residents in the population social structure,and the mobility level of urban residents in the population regional structure have a negative impact on the expenditure of basic medical insurance for urban workers.In terms of different regions with different levels of economic development,the elderly dependency ratio of urban population has a greater impact on the expenditure of basic medical insurance for urban workers in the west than in the east.The average education level of urban population and the number of secondary industry employees have a significant negative impact on the expenditure of urban workers' medical insurance in eastern China.Marriage status has a significant positive impact on medical insurance expenditure of urban workers in the west of China.Employment in tertiary industry has a positive impact on medical insurance expenditure of urban workers in east and west of China.The urbanization rate has a significant positive impact on the east and west of China.3.For expenditure level of basic medical insurance for urban residents,the old-age dependency ratio,the child dependency ratio and the sex ratio of the urban population in the natural population structure,the average household size and the proportion of the second industry employees in the urban population social structure,and the urbanization level in the population regional structure have a positive impact on the expenditure of basic medical insurance for urban residents.The average education level of urban residents and the proportion of tertiary industry employees in the population and social structure have a negative impact on the basic medical insurance expenditure of urban residents.In terms of different regions with different levels of economic development,the old-age dependency ratio of population,the child dependency ratio of urban population and the sex ratio of urban population have a significant impact on the expenditure of basic medical insurance for urban residents in east and middle of China,and the impact on east of China is greater than that in middle of China.The average population of urban households has a significant impact on the basic medical insurance expenditure of urban residents in the east and middle regions of China,but the impact on the middle region is not as great as that in the east.The average education level of urban population has a significant negative impact on the medical insurance expenditure of urban residents in eastern China.Marriage status has a significant impact on the medical insurance expenditure of urban residents in middle of China.The proportion of employment in tertiary industry has a negative impact on the basic medical insurance expenditure of urban residents in east and middle of China.The negative impact of the central region is greater.The urbanization rate has a certain impact on the east and middle regions.The floating population rate has a significant positive impact on the expenditure of basic medical insurance for urban residents in west of China.Thirdly,based on the prediction of population structure variables,we forecaste the social insurance expenditure in the further.Firstly,the age structure of the population in the natural population structure,the family structure in the population social structure and the urban-rural structure in the population regional structure are forecasted by the corresponding forecasting methods.The forecasting results show that the dependency ratio of children and the number of elderly population in cities and towns show a fluctuating upward trend.The size of average household in cities and towns has improved.The proportion of secondary industry population declined from 29.59% in 2018 to 28.73% in 2030,while the proportion of tertiary industry population increased from 46.34% to 70.47% in 2018.The level of urbanization increased from 59.96% to 72.38% in 2018.The average length of education for urban population will be 11.3 years by 2030.The proportion of urban floating population increased to 26.84% by 2030.Then,combined with the previous empirical results,we predict the trend of expenditure level of basic pension insurance for urban workers,basic medical insurance for urban workers and basic medical insurance for urban residents in 2018-2030.The increase of the urban elderly dependency ratio,the proportion of the tertiary industry population and the urbanization level will bring an increase in the expenditure level of basic medical insurance for urban workers in China.The increase of the ratio of child support,the average education level of urban population and the ratio of urban floating population will bring about the decrease of the expenditure level of basic medical insurance for urban workers in China.This may be because the change of child dependency ratio in urban areas is negatively related to the change of the number of urban workers,the reduction of the number of urban workers may make fewer people participate in urban workers' medical insurance,thus the medical insurance expenditure may be reduced.And people with higher education have more commercial insurance and more medical expenses are reimbursed through commercial insurance.The number of floating population in cities and towns participating in basic medical insurance for urban workers is relatively small.The level of expenditure on basic medical insurance of urban residents brought about by urban floating population has changed little,while the level of expenditure on basic medical insurance of urban residents caused by urban old-age dependency ratio and urban children dependency ratio has changed greatly.Finally,we summary the conclusions of this study and then put forward that the fertility policy should change with the trend and persist in the implementation of the policy of delayed retirement.Family responsibilities and family security functions should be Emphasis,especially on the full play of family functions.Achieving regional co-ordination of medical insurance and old-age insurance and establishing a more perfect social insurance system.We should improve the investment income level of pension insurance and medical insurance funds.We should attach importance to gender differences in social insurance distribution,vigorously develop education to improve the quality of the population,further reduce the pressure of social insurance expenditure,improve the financial support system,and appropriately increase the proportion of social insurance expenditure in financial expenditure.The main innovations of this paper are as follows: First,from the perspective of a broader population structure-natural population structure,social population structure and regional population structure,this paper studies the different types of endowment insurance and medical insurance,which are the main components of the social insurance system,including basic endowment insurance for urban workers,basic medical insurance for urban workers and basic medical insurance for urban residents.involves the age structure,gender structure,marriage and family structure,education structure,occupation and industry structure,urban and rural structure,mobility structure and other aspects of the population structure,broadening the perspective of previous research issues.Second,the innovation of research content.Based on the empirical results and future population structure prediction,this paper studies the impact of various aspects of population structure on the whole social insurance system,and predicts the impact of future population structure changes on basic endowment insurance for urban workers,basic medical insurance for urban workers,and basic medical insurance expenditure level for urban residents.Third,the innovation of research methods.Previous studies on the impact of population on social insurance are mostly theoretical analysis,but empirical analysis is relatively rare.This paper not only theoretically analyses the impact of population structure on social insurance expenditure,but also uses GMM dynamic panel empirical analysis method to examine the impact of population structure changes on the expenditure level of urban workers' basic endowment insurance,urban workers' basic medical insurance and urban residents' basic medical insurance.GMM method is used to solve the endogenous problem caused by the lag term of the interpreted variable and the individual effect and error term on each section.We divide the samples into east,middle and West for further analysis.This paper focuses on the intersection of population structure and social insurance.Based on the theories of insurance,demography,demographic economics,welfare economics and so on,it summarizes the main theoretical and methodological research results in the related fields of research topics at home and abroad. |
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