| At present,China's economy has entered new-normal state,investment-driven and export-driven economies are unsustainable.Enhancing the basic role of consumption,especially househild consumption,has become the key to promoting high-quality economic development in economic development.In recent years,the proportion of final consumption expenditure to GDP fluctuates between 55%and 65%.The proportion of resident consumption to GDP is low,and the per capita consumption is only about 1/14 of that of the United States.Improving the proportion of consumption in economic growth,releasing consumption potential and expanding household consumption have become important contents of current economic reform in China.In recent years,with China's aging problem becoming more and more prominent and the rising cost of children's education,for adult married families with "the elderly and the young",the larger burden of supporting the aged and the burden of supporting the children increase the family's preventive saving motivation.Especially in China,there are strong family ethics and kinship concepts.Intergenerational support behavior of adult married families allocate economics subject through the whole life cycle.The "upward" intergenerational support is mainly embodied in the support of the elderly.In terms of "downward" intergenerational support,Chinese parents attach great importance to their children's education and place great hopes on their children.Family investment in their children's education extends from children to adults.Parents still need to provide support for their marriage after their children have acquired independent financial ability as adults.Chinese-style pension,Chinese-style education,the support needed for Chinese-style marriage,education and marriage have a significant impact on household consumption expenditure.As the most important consumer in society,its consumption potential is restrained and can not be fully released.Intergenerational family support involves the reallocation of limited resources among members of intergenerational families.Under certain conditions of family income,the increase in the number of family members receiving intergenerational support will increase family burden,and the smooth consumption of families with maximum utility will change their consumption and savings decisions.Many scholars have studied the impact of the number of children and the elderly on family consumption within the framework of life cycle theory.From the conclusion of the study,there is no consensus on the relationship between the number of family members receiving intergenerational support and family consumption.This paper holds that the existing research neglects the influence of quality of family members on family consumption,which leads to the uncertainty of the impact of population structure changes on family consumption,explores the factors of population quality can not be ignored in micro-household consumption behavior.What is the impact of intergenerational support behavior on family consumption in adult married families after incorporating population quality factors such as the health level of the elderly,the education level of children,parents'expectations for children's education,and children's marital status?Can China's public medical security and education security be used as supplements and substitutes for family intergenerational support,thereby alleviating the burden of family intergenerational support?How do parents'educational expectations affect family consumption and to what extent do they crowd out other non-educational consumption?What are the burdens of children in different stages of education on their families?What is the interaction and substitution between"supporting the aged" and "supporting the young" intergenerational support behavior?How does children's marital status affect family consumption,and whether children's gender has a heterogeneous impact on family consumption?This paper attempts to use household micro-survey data to construct a micro-sample covering information about family members'health,education and marriage,focusing on population quality factors and answering the above questions.Based on the existing research,this paper explores the impact of population quality and family's burden of intergenerational support on family consumption by establishing a theoretical analysis framework in line with the reality of our country,starting from the intergenerational support provided by adult married families to their parents and children.In theory,this paper takes modern consumption theory as the theoretical analysis framework,expands the overlapping model of life cycle generation,incorporates the population quality of family members into the theoretical analysis framework,and studies the influence of intergenerational support behavior of adult married families on family consumption decision-making.The interaction and substitution between "supporting the aged" and "supporting the young" are also analyzed.In empirical aspect,this paper mainly uses the micro-data from family level(CFPS)to make empirical analysis by the methods of propensity score matching,least squares estimation,Tobin estimation,Logit model and so on.The multi-dimensional robustness test of the empirical results is made to make the empirical results more convincing.Through the comprehensive analysis of theory and practice,this paper explores the mechanism of population quality and intergenerational support on residents'consumption,and further explores the impact of China's education,medical and public social security policies on the release of residents' consumption potential.The full text is divided into eight chapters.Chapter 1 is an introduction;Chapter 2 is a literature review;Chapter 3 is an analysis of the current situation of consumption and intergenerational support of Chinese residents;Chapter 4 is an analysis of the impact of health and old-age security for the elderly on the consumption behavior of their children's families;Chapter 5 is an analysis of the impact of compulsory education and higher education on family consumption;Chapter 6 is an analysis of the interaction and substitution between old-age support and intergenerational support behavior;Chapter 7 is an analysis of The relationship between children's marital status,Preventive Savings and family consumption is analyzed.Chapter 8 is conclusions and policy recommendations.This paper draws the following main conclusions through research:Firstly,the health status of the elderly members is taken as a variable to measure the quality of the elderly,and an overlapping generation model including the quality of the elderly is constructed.Empirical study found that the health status of the elderly significantly affected household consumption and net household consumption.The worse the health status of the elderly,the heavier the burden of family support for the elderly,the stronger the motivation of preventive savings,and the more the squeeze out of family consumption.Compared with the families without the elderly,the consumption of the families with better health status of the elderly decreased by 13.44%,and that of the families with worse health status of the elderly decreased by 18.55%.There is little difference in the burden of providing for the aged between urban and rural areas,and there is no obvious difference between urban and rural areas in "family supporting for the aged".Secondly,the public social security status of the parents is included in the consumption utility function of the children's families.Taking medical insurance as an example,the relationship between inter-generational support and family consumption is studied.Empirical research found that the consumption of the children whose parents participated in medical insurance was significantly higher than that of the children whose parents did not participate in medical insurance.The consumption of the families in the treatment group was significantly higher than that in the control group by about 18%.Parents'participation in medical insurance can significantly increase the consumption of their children's families.Medical insurance can replace family pension to a certain extent and reduce the burden of the children's families The effect of public social security has spillover and family externalities.There is a significant difference between urban and rural areas in the burden of providing for the aged of daughters and sons.In urban areas,the family consumption of the insured daughters of the father generation is 53%higher than that of the uninsured families,and the family consumption of the sons is 40%higher.The responsibility of the daughters in providing for the aged in the family is higher than that of the sons.There are also significant differences between urban and rural areas and regions.Thirdly,taking the educational expectation of parents to their offspring and the educational level of their children as the indicators to measure the quality of their children,the sample is divided according to the stage of their children's education,and the relationship between family "downward" intergenerational support and consumption in the stage of compulsory education and higher education is studied respectively.The results show that parents'high quality expectations of their children have a significant impact on family education consumption and non-education consumption expenditure.At the stage of compulsory education,children's enrollment mainly reduces household consumption by squeezing out non-educational expenditure and increasing preventive savings.Parents'expectations also significantly increased family education savings by squeezing out non-educational expenditure and increasing preventive savings,and significantly reduced family non-educational consumption by 10562 yuan,accounting for 18.65%of the control group's family non-educational consumption.And compared with children's enrollment in school,parents'expectations have a greater impact on family consumption.On this basis,the impact of higher education expenditure on family consumption is further analyzed.The results show that there is no significant difference in consumption between families with college students'children and families without college students' children.There was no significant difference between urban and rural areas and between families of different income levels.At present,the perfect national award/grant system can guarantee poor students to rely on their studies to a great extent,and the burden of family investment in higher education for their children is decreasing.Fourthly,the quality of the elderly and the quality of their children are integrated into the overlapping generation model,and the interaction and substitution between two-way intergenerational support are analyzed.From the interaction point of view,the heavier the burden of supporting the aged and supporting the children,the more the household consumption will be reduced.For every level of improvement in the expectation of children's quality,household consumption decreases by about 1.6%.The higher the expectation of children's quality,the more the consumption decreases.If the elderly are healthy,it will not affect household consumption.Only when the health of the elderly is poor,household consumption will be reduced by about 4,8%.In the absence of children enrolled in school,household consumption decreased by about 0.6%for every grade of decline in the health status of elderly members.Compared with the burden of supporting the aged,the burden of supporting the children has a greater impact on household consumption.The impact of the burden of supporting children on family consumption is not only related to itself,but also to the burden of supporting children.That is to say,the families with the most investment in the quality of their children,the elder members with the worst health,and the lowest consumption.The consumption of supporting children will squeeze out the consumption of supporting the aged.Under the restriction of family income,the behavior of supporting the young generation takes precedence over that of supporting the old generation.Fifthly,the marital status of children is included in the scope of population quality,and the influence of children's marital status on family consumption is studied.The results show that whether children marry or not has a significant impact on family consumption.For every increase in the number of unmarried children,family consumption decreases by about 9.18%.For every one-year increase in the age of unmarried children,household consumption decreases by about 1.19%.Compared with the number of unmarried children,the influence of unmarried children's age on consumption is more significant.Compared with families with only unmarried girls,family consumption with unmarried boys decreased by 4.41%,which is consistent with the traditional marriage concept of our family.There is heterogeneity in the factor of "saving for children's marriage" between females.The crowding-out effect of sons on family consumption is greater than that of daughters,and there are significant regional and urban-rural differences.Based on the above analysis,the policy recommendations of this paper are given.The government should further improve various public security policies,reduce the inhibiting effect of intergenerational support on consumption of married families,and promote the release of family consumption potential.Firstly,in alleviating the burden of providing for the aged,we should further improve the construction of the social security system,including medical insurance,and give full play to the substitution role of social security such as medical insurance for "family endowment".We will further speed up the improvement of commercial old-age insurance and old-age insurance schemes,alleviate the pressure brought about by the increasing life expectancy,and reduce the burden of medical care and old-age support for the elderly by the families of the next generation.Secondly,we should actively play the role of education assistance policy,stabilize the expectation of family education investment,reduce Preventive Savings of family education,lighten the burden of family support for children,and improve family consumption ability and human capital investment enthusiasm.Especially in the compulsory education stage,under the background of strict control of school expenditure,it is necessary to avoid the phenomenon that the"burden reduction" of school expenditure cannot make up for the "burden increase" of Extra-School expenditure.Educational departments should further consolidate and strengthen cooperation with social organizations and the financial system of enterprises,simplify procedures,strictly implement various types of student aid projects,and further reduce the burden of poor families.Finally,through propaganda and education,we should guide residents to engage in rational consumption of marriage,establish a correct concept of marriage and bride price,not be mere formality,not advocating the style of comparison,not following the luxury,and advocating a healthy concept of marriage consumption. |
PDF Full Text Request