The Chinese Population Aging And Its Effects On Household Consumption

The problem of population aging has attracted wide attention from all walks of life at home and abroad,and has become an irreversible trend in twenty-first Century.For China,the aging of the population is a very serious challenge in the process of sustained economic development in China.At the present stage,the rapid growth of our economy is accompanied by the declining consumption rate.Consumption is not only the motive force of economic development,but also the ultimate goal of economic development.Therefore,the level of consumption rate,especially the consumption rate of residents,is very important for China's economic development.In 2016,the population of above 65 years older in China had exceeded 150 million.By the end of 2017,the number of people aged 65 and above has reached 158 million 310 thousand people,the proportion has accounted to 11.4%,China has become the most number of elderly population in the world,and as become the only one economy in the world that the number of elderly population over two hundred million.According to the survey,the number of people over 65 years old has been increasing continuously in recent ten years.In 2008,the growth rate was 3% over the same period,and the growth rate has increased to 5.5% in 2017.But our country is in China now and will remain in the primary stage of socialism,the weak economic foundation,productivity is not very developed,in this context,China's aging population also showed their own characteristics: "rich" and "less",base,speed fast.Therefore,the continuous growth of the number of the elderly population in China will jeopardize the economic development of our country.In recent years,China's economic development has been developing well.In2013-2016,the average annual growth rate of GDP in China was 7.2%,which is relatively high compared with the world average growth level(2.5%)in the same period and the level of other developing countries(4%).The economic increment is increasing year by year.The comprehensive strength has increased significantly.Over the past thirty years,the change of China's final consumption rate curve has shown "U type",that is,the consumption rate started at a relatively high level,then began to decline,and then began to rise.the lowest time was only 40%,and it began to pick up slowly in recent years,for example,in 2016,the final consumption rate just increased to 53.6%.So from the recent thirty years of China's economic development,although the consumer is also driving the economy forward,also made its own contribution toeconomic development,but not enough.At present,the development of population aging has been closely related to the development of economy.Therefore,with the rapid development of China's economy and the increasing degree of aging,it is very necessary to study the impact of aging on the consumption of residents,which has far-reaching significance.In theory,this paper studies the impact of population aging on Residents' consumption,which helps to explain why China's residents' consumption level continues to decline.This research is also a powerful supplement to this theory.In practice,the research that help to promote the economy in the new economy under normal conditions quickly achieve transformation,also helps to increase the concern for the elderly,promote the improvement of the pension system and improve the social security system.This thesis is the research of the predecessors of simple sorting,classification of the literature research of many famous economists,on the basis of the theoretical of this study,and then analyzing the nowadays aging of population and consumption serious situation,and of their characteristics and future the situation is summarized,again using simplified model on the relationship between population aging and the consumption of the residents to do the empirical research,the aging of the population will have negative harm to China's household consumption,and further use of grey correlation degree analysis of the impact of software aging on various consumer residents constitute the final conclusion and analysis.Put forward the policy suggestion.Specifically,this simple model is the use of time series data of 2006-2015China's 31 provinces,to the residents' consumption rate as the dependent variable,the elderly dependency ratio,per capita GDP,the logarithm of the child dependency ratio as the independent variables for empirical analysis;using gray correlation software to China's 2006-2015 year old dependency ratio as the reference sequence,the international requirements of residents consumption expenditure as eight calculation of reference sequence.