Research On The Grain Demand Of Migrant Workers In China

In recent years,China’ s grain output and import have increased simultaneously,which becomes more and more severe.This problem will negatively affect food security,healthy development of agriculture,and peasant income growth.It is urgent to study the original reasons of the problem and propose effective countermeasures.Some previous studies believed that the major reasons of the problem are the imbalance of grain production and consumption and the higher grain prices at home than abroad.In our study,however,we discovered that there are remarkable differences between migrant workers and urban and rural residents in grain demand level and structure,as migrant workers account for about one fifth of the total population of China and earn their living by severe physical labor.The undervaluation of the grain demand of migrant workers led to the underestimation of China’s total grain demand.Therefore,we believe that the impacts of urbanization and industrialization on grain demand should be paid more attention.With the development of urbanization and industrialization,China’s total grain demand grows much faster than expected,which may be the key to explain the simultaneous increase of grain output and import.Therefore,it is essential to study China’s grain demand based on a ternary demand structure consisting of migrant workers and urban and rural residents,having great significance for the scientific evaluation of the changes of China’s grain demand and trade and the policy-making of China’s food security.In this paper,the grain demand of China’s migrant workers was studied comprehensively and systematically using a nationally representative sampling survey of migrant workers in 2013 and 2014.From the angle of the grain demand of migrant workers,the reasons for the simultaneous increase of grain output and import were investigated.First,the grain demand level and structure of China’s migrant workers were calculated from three aspects,namely ration,feed grain and total grain.Second,the models for the ration demand,feed grain demand and total grain demand were constructed and applied to quantitative analysis of the factors that affect the grain demand of migrant workers.Third,the change tendency of grain demand level and structure of urban and rural residents was investigated.Then,a comparative study on the differences between migrant workers and urban and rural residents in grain demand level and structure was performed,and the pushing function of urbanization for China’s grain demand and the underestimation of grain demand of migrant workers were investigated.Fourth,a comparison between the the migrant workers in the east and midwest of China in the grain demand was carried out,involving quantitative analysis of the factors affecting the grain demand of migrant workers using the feed grain demand model and the difference between the migrant workers in the east and midwest of China in feed grain demand using the Conditional Distribution Decomposition model.Fifth,the impacts of the changes in income distribution and uncertainty on grain demand of migrant workers were empirically analyzed using the double logarithm model.Sixth,the quantity change tendency of China’s grain output,trade and demand and the reasons for the simultaneous increase of grain output and import were analyzed.The obtained main conclusions of this paper are listed as follows.(I)Grain demand per capita of migrant workers is 455.00 kg,ration demand is 238.96 kg,and feed grain demand is 216.04 kg.Both ration demand and feed grain demand are equally represented.Whereas,grain demand per capita of migrant workers varies in different regions.(2)Grain demand per capita of migrant workers,which is converted from food consumption,is higher than either urban or rural residents.(3)The grain demand of migrant workers increases by 2578.5 million tons after migration from countryside to city,accounting for 4.27 percent of China’s grain output over the same period.China’s total grain demand was underestimated by 3580.1 million tons,which accounts for 5.29 percent of China’ s grain output and is higher than China’ s grain import over the same period.(4)Grain demand per capita of migrant workers in the east is a little more than that in the midwest.The migrant workers in the midwest demand more ration than feed grain,while those in the east demand ration and feed grain in the same proportion.With increase of the quantile,the total difference and the coefficient difference become narrow,whereas the characteristic difference enlarges.(5)The changes in income distribution cause great alterations both in food expenditure and consumption of the whole society.(6)Both the income uncertainty and the expenditure uncertainty remarkably inhibit total consumption and food consumption of migrant workers,and the lower the consumption level or income level,the stronger the inhibitory roles in migrant workers’ consumption.(7)The great grain demand of migrant workers is the key to explain the simultaneous increase of grain output and import.Finally,the policy recommendations are listed as follows.(1)Relying on domestic markets to ensure ration security and to realize a strategic change in food security from quantity-based one to one based on both quality and quantity.(2)Making full use of international market to realize feed grain diversification.(3)Not only the differences in food consumption between migrant workers and urban and rural residents but also the changes in income distribution of migrant workers should be fully considered in food security policy making.(4)Migrant workers should be trained and guided reasonably to transfer between industries and regions.(5)Promoting migrant worker’s urbanization and accelerating the reform of Household Registration System can reduce migrant workers’uncertainty,which will boost their consumer expectations,release their consumption potential and improve their living standards effectively.