Study On The Influence Of The Ruble Exchange Rate On Russian Economic Structure

Since the international financial crisis in 2008,the economic growth of Russia is weak and economic growth has slowed down.In 2010,the Russian economy began to recover after the crisis,and the economy grew by 4% over the same period.But after2013,Russia's economic growth continued to decline,the growth rate was obviously lower than the level before the outbreak of the crisis,and the economic growth stagnated.But this is far from over.In 2014,under the influence of Western sanctions,oil prices fell sharply and ruble sharply depreciated.In 2015,Russia's economic growth was negative again,the growth rate was only-3.7%,and the economy was in crisis.On the surface,these reasons have directly led to the economic crisis of 2015.But in the long run,this is a direct result of the Russian resource-based economic structure.And this economic crisis can be said a direct outbreak of the structural crisis in Russia under the impact of foreign crises.Russia's economic structure has existed for a long time.Whether in the Soviet Union or in today's Russia,economic structure has always been an important factor affecting economic growth and determining the mode of economic development to a large extent.Among them,the resource dependent economic structure is a common generalization of the Russian economic structure.Though according to the traditional economic growth theory,as a rich resource endowment,Russia should develop endowment advantages,vigorously develop resource intensive industries,participate in international division of labor,and achieve economic growth.But to a large extent,Russia has fallen into an economic model of excessive resource dependence.Under this economic mode,Russia's economic growth form is heavily dependent on external economic forms,especially the price and demand of international resources market will have a greater impact on the resources sector and impact on the whole economy.If with the progress of science and technology,resources can be replaced,or the supply of resources greatly increased,it may cause the prices of oil and natural gas resources and other resources will fall sharply.At the same time,the external demand is not enough to support the development of the whole economy,and the negative effect ofthis structure will be further revealed.The Russian government also saw the underlying reason for this crisis.And the underlying reason is the rigid and single economic structure.To really get out of the crisis,it is necessary to fundamentally improve Russia's economic structure.A lot of economic and social issues related to the adjustment of economic structure raised in“Development strategy for Russia by 2020” announced in February 8,2008,such as the implementation of innovative economic development,increasing human capital investment,and actively developing high-tech industries,accelerating the development of small and medium enterprises,emphasizing the transition from the development model of export raw materials to the model of innovation oriented economic development,and so on.All of them are to change the current Russian serious irrational economic structure and backward economic development model.If the seriously unbalanced economic structure cannot be changed for a long time,it is not excluded that the possibility of structural decline which will continue in the future development of Russian economy.How to realize the optimization and adjustment of Russian economic structure,it is necessary to analyze the related factors affecting the Russian economic structure.From the perspective of existing studies,many studies generally focus on system,path dependence,resource endowment and so on,but neglect the key economic variable of ruble exchange rate.In fact,the exchange rate has already been included in the analysis of the economic structure,but there is a lack of research on the related issues in Russia.In 2014,the ruble depreciation directly changed the cost and structure of Russian import and export products,led to the re configuration of elements among sectors.And the structural effect of the ruble exchange rate depreciation has begun to appear.After the crisis,the Russian government's anti-crisis plans begin to adapt to the structural adjustment effect of ruble's depreciation rather than forced to carry out structural adjustment to reduce import dependence on manufactured goods.It seems emergency measures,but happens at the right time.Based on the above understanding,this paper will make an in-depth analysis of the impact of ruble exchange rate on the economic structure and its internal logic from three aspects: demand structure,two sector structure and industrial structure.And onthis basis,we examine the optimization path of economic structure under the background of the ruble fluctuation.This paper begins with the following structure:firstly,the basic status and characteristics of the Russian economic structure are introduced,and then it points out the main problems.Secondly,the historical data of Russia is used to describe the relationship between the ruble exchange rate and the economic structure.Finally,the paper uses the Russian Federation data and the panel data of the federal main body to carry out an empirical analysis.Through theoretical analysis,normative analysis and empirical test,the following conclusions are drawn: firstly,the theoretical and empirical research shows that ruble exchange rate will affect the demand structure through influencing the relative price of domestic and foreign products.The depreciation of the domestic products in the devaluation of the ruble has led to an increase in exports.On the other hand,the revaluation of the ruble will increase the relative price of domestic products and reduce the export increase.The devaluation of the ruble will decrease the relative price of domestic products and increase the export.On the other hand,the revaluation of the ruble will increase the relative price of domestic products and reduce the export increase.The devaluation of the ruble will reduce imports through the conversion effect and increase domestic demand,but it has a differential effect on different types of products.Secondly,the actual devaluation of the ruble will significantly inhibit the development of the non-trade sector,but to promote the development of the trade sector.On the contrary,the real appreciation of the ruble will impede the development of the trade sector and promote the development of the non-trade sector.Thirdly,the ruble exchange rate will also affect the Russian industrial structure.Under the background of the devaluation of the ruble,it can lead to the growth of Russian labor-intensive industries,but the impact on the capital-intensive industries is not obvious.Therefore,the devaluation of the ruble is not conducive to the optimization and upgrading of Russian industrial structure.