Empirical Study On The Impact Of Residents' Consumption Structure Change On The Industrial Structure Transformation In China

For a long time,China's economic growth has mainly depended on exports and investment.After the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008,exports were greatly affected.The Chinese government proposed a four trillion investment plan and hopes to maintain rapid economic growth by increasing infrastructure construction and real estate investment.After 2012,China's economic growth rate has slowed down significantly,and there has been a serious surplus of heavy-duty industries such as steel and cement.It can be seen that simply relying on investment to stimulate economic growth is not sustainable.In the 13 th Five-Year Plan,the Chinese government explicitly proposed to strengthen the supply-side reforms to meet the needs of the residents.In the report of the Nineteenth Congress,it was once again emphasized that the dynamic balance between supply and demand should be maintained.Therefore,adjusting the industrial structure to adapt to changes in the consumption structure of residents is of great significance to maintaining the sustainable economic development.At present,many scholars have conducted relevant research on this matter,but they lack systemicity and lack of depth.For this reason,this article uses a combination of normative analysis and empirical analysis to systematically study the impact of changes in resident consumer structure on the transformation of the industrial structure.The production is to meet the consumer demand of the residents,and the change of the resident's consumption structure determines the direction of the transformation of the industrial structure.Based on the results of previous studies,this paper systematically analyzes the basic path that influences changes in resident consumption structure in industrial restructuring: When the resident's consumption structure changes,it influences the relative prices of goods between industries through market mechanisms,and then changes the industry.The return on investment between the two promotes the reallocation of resources between industries and ultimately promotes the transformation of the industrial structure.This paper uses the SDA model and the econometric model for empirical analysis to verify the above theory.Firstly,Chenari's Demand Structure Decomposition Analysis Model(SDA)was reconstructed,which improved the time lag of the input-output table.The resident consumption changes are decomposed into two parts: the changes in the structure of resident consumption and the growth of total resident consumption.The relationship between the changes in resident consumption structure and the transformation of industrial structure has been established.The resident consumption data for the ten IO tables from 1990 to 2012 have been constructed.The forecast was made and the prediction result was substituted into the reconstructed SDA model,and the measurement results of changes in the resident's consumption structure affecting the transformation of the industrial structure were obtained.Second,the relationship between household consumption changes and capital investment,capital investment and industrial added value was deduced.The changes in the structure of residential consumption and the increase in the total consumption of residents were used in place of the changes in residents' consumption to construct changes in the structure of residents' consumption and influence the transformation of industrial structure.Finally,the data of household consumption structure changes,capital investment,and industrial added value were substituted into the measurement model,and the measurement results of the impact of changes in the resident consumption structure on the industrial structure transformation were obtained.Through the above-mentioned empirical analysis of the SDA model and the econometric model,it can be seen that:(1)Changes in the structure of resident consumption promote the transformation of the industrial structure,and the increase in total household consumption can only lead to the growth of GDP.(2)Food,transportation equipment,petroleum coking and nuclear fuel,chemical products,real estate,information transmission,computer services and software,medical treatment and social work are the hot spots of Chinese residents' consumption growth in the coming period and are also the direction of industrial restructuring.(3)The tertiary industry has the fastest growth in resident consumption,and the corresponding tertiary industry has the fastest growth in fixed asset investment,driving the increase in the ratio of the added value of the tertiary industry to GDP,and the situation in the primary industry is just the opposite.(D)The accelerated growth of resident consumption has promoted the increase of investment in fixed assets,which in turn has promoted the development of heavy chemical industry and modern service industry.Therefore,the accelerated growth of resident consumption indirectly promotes the transformation of industrial structure.