| Investment, consumption, imports and exports are the driving forces of economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has been in a typical economic growth mode, which depends on imports and exports and government investment to guideand update industrial structure. At present, with the growing effect of the international financial crisis, the RMB exchange rate gradually appreciate, and imports and exports are severely disrupted. Additionally, with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, transfer mode, adjust the structure, steady growth has become the main objective of the current macroeconomic development of Shandong Province.With the development of market economy, the economy of Shandong province has gradually entered the consumer-oriented phase, and optimizing the consumption structure has become the driving force for industrial structure adjustment and economic development. On one hand, consumer demand is the most important part of the total demand and the main driving force of the economic growth. The goal to expand consumer demand can change economic growth mode from relying on investment and exports to the harmonious development of consumption and investment, domestic and foreign demand.On the other hand, changes in the consumption structure affects the industrial structure at first, and plays a leading role in the industrial structure adjustment. Then the reasonable industrial structure configures all sources rationally to meet the changes in consumption structure. Changes in the consumption structure can cause other changes in different industries through the industrial relevance to update the industrial structure, and optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure will promote economic development soundly and rapidly. Adjustment of the industrial structure and transformation of the economic growth mode has become the primary task for China to develop the economy soundly and rapidly.This thesis reviews the theoretical literature related to consumption structure and industrial structure, elaborates the meaning of consumption structure, classification and related factors, and summarizes the mechanism in which the changes of consumption structure influences the industrial structure in some specific forms. Taking Shandong urban residents as an example, this thesis analyzes the evolution of consumption structure, divides the evolution into several important stages according to Engel’s coefficient and per capita GDP standard, and summarizes the features of the evolution. Based on the urban residents’consumption data from 1999 to 2013, this thesis, by using Almost Ideal Demand System model (AIDS), empirically analyzes the evolution of the urban residents’consumption structure in a consumer-oriented society judged by the standard of international per capita GDP, and concludes that the main factors that affluences consumption structure upgrading are revenue growth and price change. By using input-output analysis, this thesis measures the influence of consumption structure upgrading on industry structure upgrading, and concludes that the change of consumption structure is the main drive for the upgrading of industry structure in Shandong Province. This thesis also provides some suggestions, based on its conclusion and the current situation of Shandong Province.The innovation of this thesis lies in its research methods. On one hand, using Almost Ideal Demand System model (AIDS) to analyze the influence of price on the consumption of different commodities and the significance level is innovative in research methods. On the other hand, when analyzing the influence of the consumption structure change on industry structure, this thesis uses input-output analysis and the correlation coefficient of the input-output tables of Shandong in recent years to measure the influence of consumption structure change on industrial development and industry structure and the trend, which is also original in measurement methods. |
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