| The continuous evolution of industrial structure is an important reason for the growth of the urban economy.Study on the evolution of industrial structure has always been one of the essential issues concerned by the academic community.In the context of globalization,the regional economy is facing more and more disturbances and crises.Studies on the evolution of industrial structure have faced new problems and challenges.Compared with emerging industrial cities,the old industrial cities are facing greater difficulties in the process of industrial restructuring,and their adjustment and transformation is an arduous task for any country.At present,the industrial structure of most of the old industrial cities in China is still at the stage of adjusting from emphasizing the primary industry to focusing on both the primary industry and the service industry,among them,the industrial structure adjustment of old industrial cities in the northeast is more urgent.Since 2013,the northeast region has experienced a “cliff-like drop” in the economy after its rapid growth in the past decade.The “New Northeast Phenomenon” represented by Shenyang City has again attracted a widespread attention from academic circles,political circles,and society.The study of regional economic resilience based on evolutionary resilience theory has become an important theoretical tool for western economic geographers to study economic recovery and sustainable development.This theory can provide a new theoretical perspective for recognizing the long-term dynamic evolution process and the internal mechanism of the regional industrial structure.Therefore,in the dissertation,the evolutionary resilience theory was applied to the study of industrial structure evolution of old industrial cities,which enriched the theoretical dimension of urban industrial structure and broadened the application of evolutionary resilience theory.This article compared and analyzed the differences in the industrial structure changes between Shenyang City and other typical old industrial cities,constructed an industrial structure evolution analysis framework based on the evolutionary resilience theory,and analyzed the mechanism of the industrial structure evolution of Shenyang,so as to provide a theoretical reference for scientifically understanding the development and evolution of the old northeast industrial bases represented by Shenyang and for making a new round of revitalization strategy for the northeast area.The main study contents of the dissertation include:1.Through systematically reviewing the study progress of domestic and foreign industrial structure evolution,evolutionary resilience,economic development of old industrial cities,related basic theories,etc.,the article brought the evolutionary resilience theory into the urban industrial structure,constructing an analytical framework for the urban industrial structure evolution based on the evolutionary resilience theory.2.Shanghai,Tianjin,Chongqing,Wuhan,Xi'an,and Harbin were selected as the comparison objects of Shenyang.Through comparing the three times industrial structure,and light and heavy industrial structure,ownership structure,enterprise scale and structure of the secondary industry,as well as the internal structure and the major service structure of the tertiary industry industries and other dimensions since the reform and opening up,we compared and analyzed the changing process of industrial structure in the seven old industrial cities as well as the changing characteristics of the industrial structure of Shenyang.3.On the macro-level,it is necessary to study the external and intrinsic characteristics of regional resilience.The resilience of industrial growth is the external characteristic of regional resilience;while the changes in the industrial structure of the regional old path and new path are intrinsic long-term characteristics of regional resilience.First,we analyzed the resilience characteristics of the growth of the three times industries as well as those of the high-end,mid-end,and low-end technology industries of the manufacturing industry,and identified the key industries that affected the changes in the three times industrial structure and in the manufacturing structure.Secondly,we identified the industries of the new path and the old path in the process of the long-term internal structure evolution of the manufacturing industry of Shenyang.The old path consists of three industries,namely,machinery industry,electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry,and transportation equipment manufacturing industry.The new path is composed of three industries: food processing and manufacturing,computer and communications electronics,and non-metallic mineral products.We also analyzed the adaptability of the growth of the industries of the new path and the old path and the structural changes between them.Finally,we summarized the response characteristics of industrial structure in the process of resilience changes in the industrial growth in Shenyang City.4.The entry of new advantageous industries and the exit of old advantageous industries are inherent short-term characteristics of the regional resilience in the evolution of regional industrial structure.From the perspective of the relationship between industrial linkage and industrial structure evolution,we selected the nation as a horizontal comparison object and analyzed the characteristics of the entry and exit of manufacturing comparative industries in Shenyang and the path creation from 2004 to 2013.5.On the micro-level,to study the process of creative destruction caused by the entry of new companies and the exit of old ones is required when measuring regional resilience.Corporate dynamics lead to changes in the industrial structure.From the point of view of the industry heterogeneity of industry type,spatial distribution,and market entity type,we studied the characteristics of the dynamics of the industrial enterprises of the new path and the old path in Shenyang from 2001 to 2013 and then analyzed the characteristics of industrial structure evolution in Shenyang.6.The adaptive cycle model can provide a theoretical analysis framework for understanding the dynamic and complex process of regional economic and industrial development from an evolutionary perspective.According to the adaptive cycle model,the industrial development of Shenyang from 2001 was divided into stages,and the industrial adaptation process as well as the industrial structure evolution in different stages were studied.The main study conclusions of the dissertation include:1.In the dissertation,we constructed an analysis framework for the evolution of urban industrial structure based on evolutionary resilience theory,starting from three aspects,namely,macro-industry,micro-enterprise,and regional economic adaptability cycle process.From the perspective of macro-industry,industrial growth ability is the external characteristic of regional resilience;changes of industrial structure in the old path and the new path of the region is the inherent long-term characteristic of regional resilience.The continuous entry and exit of advantageous industries is an intrinsic short-term feature of regional resilience.From the perspective of micro-industry,the regional resilience manifests itself in the change of industrial structure triggered by the dynamics of the enterprise.From the perspective of regional economic adaptability cycle process,the regional resilience in the development of industrial system adaptation shows a periodic feature.2.Since the reform and opening up,the three times industrial structures in Shenyang have undergone a wide range of changes.In particular,since 2002,the changes in the three times industrial structures have shown an opposite trend from other typical old industrial cities.A prominent feature is that the proportion of the secondary industry has been greatly improved with a relatively poor structural coordination between the secondary industry and the tertiary industry.The reform of the ownership system of manufacturing enterprises has achieved remarkable results.Private enterprises have developed rapidly and become dominant.However,large enterprises of the private ones have been underdeveloped,especially there is only a smaller proportion of the limited liability companies that represent modern companies,indicating that there are fewer large private enterprises in Shenyang.Small-scale enterprises dominated.Since 2003,the development of the tertiary industry in Shenyang has lagged behind.The service industry has been improved but is still relatively insignificant.3.Since the reform and opening up,affected by the macroeconomic operating cycle,Shenyang's industrial growth capacity has exhibited a “contraction-expansion” fluctuation,and the secondary industry's growth capacity has shown stronger expansion and contraction.The three times of changing directions of industrial structure have greater volatility.The rapid increase in the service-oriented economic structure since the 1990 s and the year of 2012 is not a reflection of the active industrial restructuring,but is caused by the slowdown in the secondary industry growth.Since 1999,the process of high-end manufacturing in Shenyang has slowed down and lacked stability.Especially since the implementation of the strategy of revitalizing the old industrial bases in the northeast of China,the mid-end industries and low-end industries in Shenyang have showed a stronger expansion and contraction.The industrial growth capacity of the old path in Shenyang has the periodic characteristics of “contraction-expansion” continuous transformation which has a greater impact on the structural evolution process of the manufacturing industry.The decline in the growth capacity of the old path is mainly due to the lack of innovation capacity.In the evolution of the old path and the new path,the new path development has showed low-end characteristics.Since the beginning of the 21 st century,the development of the old path and the new path in Shenyang has been low and volatile in terms of both economic externality and innovation.The process of market-oriented reform of the old path consisting of machinery,transportation,and electrical industry has been slow.4.From the census data of three surveys of Shenyang City and the national manufacturing industry(large and medium-sized industries)in 2004,2008,and 2013,it is found that from 2004 to 2008,the diversification of manufacturing structure of Shenyang was enhanced and the path creation of industrial structure evolution was characterized by path breakthrough.The newly-formed comparative advantage industries were mainly concentrated in the low-end and high-end manufacturing industries.At the same time,some high-end manufacturing industries with traditional comparative advantages exited from the market.From 2008 to 2013,the diversification of the manufacturing structure in Shenyang decreased,and the path creation of industrial structure evolution was characterized by path dependence.The new comparative advantage industries were mainly concentrated in high-end manufacturing industries,and the exit of old comparative advantage industries was mainly concentrated in low-end and mid-end manufacturing industries.5.Through studying the dynamic changes of manufacturing companies with registered capital of more than CNY10 million,it is found that from 2001 to 2013,the dynamic characteristics of the new path and the old path industries all showed a reduction in the entry of enterprises,an increase in the exit of enterprises,and a reduction in regional resilience.In terms of changes in corporate dynamics and industrial structure,the industrial structure of the new path and the old path reflected by the changes in the number of firms tended to develop in a disequilibrium manner that was dominated by the industries of the old path.In terms of changes in corporate dynamics and industrial spatial structure,the spatial distribution of the enterprises of the new path was developing toward an equilibrium space.The old path enterprises space was still a disequilibrium space development dominated by Tiexi District(Shenyang Economic and Technological Development Zone).In terms of corporate dynamics and structural changes in the main types of industrial markets,the main structure of the new path industrial markets was oriented toward the disequilibrium direction dominated by private enterprises.The structure of the old path industries market was similar to that of the new path industries,among which,the proportion of private enterprises was much higher.6.According to the adaptive cycle model analysis framework,since 2001,Shenyang's industrial system has undergone a phased change under the influence of the three attributes,including potential value,relevance,and resilience,and is currently in the transition from conservation to release.From exploitation-conservation phase(from 2001 to 2008),the diversification of the industrial structure in Shenyang gradually increased,the development of the industrial structure became more rationalized,and the adaptability of the industrial system was improved.The innovation level of the old path industries was improved;the ability to accumulate capital of the industries of both the old path and the new path was significantly enhanced.Industries of the new path and the old path,both with a relatively stable structure,achieved a rapid development.With the transformation of the internal structure of industries of the old path,the rapid development of the machinery industry and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry improved the adaptability of the old path industries.Due to the internal transformation of the industries of the new path,the agricultural and sideline food processing industry and the rapid development of non-metallic minerals manufacturing offset the negative impact brought by the slowdown in the computer and communications electronics industries and solidified the development of the new path industries.From conservation-release phase(from 2009 to 2015),the diversification of the industrial structure in Shenyang significantly decreased,and the rationalization of the industrial structure declined.The industries of the new path and old path have a relatively low level of innovation and fewer new products with a marked decline in both capital agglomeration and competitiveness of scientific and technological talents,accompanied by a slowdown in the growth rate of the new path and the old path industries,which is more dramatic in the new path.The evolution of the industrial structure of the old path and the new path was slowing down.The transformation occurred in the internal structure of the old path industries.A significant decline in the growth rate of the machinery industry reduced the adaptability of the old path industries.The structure among the three industries of the new path industry remained stable but lacked the ability to offset the negative impact caused by the industrial recession,resulting in a declined adaptability of the industries of the new path. |
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