| Xinjiang is the main area of cotton market reform China,the success or failure of the market reform of cotton in Xinjiang has an important influence on the market-oriented reform of agriculture in china.In2014,the government promulgated out the reform of the cotton price target pilot work in Xinjiang,the target price of 19800 yuan /t,after the implementation of the policy: the market price of cotton fell sharply,shrinking,domestic cotton price gap between cotton imports decreased rapidly.From 2014 to 2016,"Xinjiang cotton target price reform pilot implementation plan" implementation has great impact on the main chain of cotton industry: textile enterprises,cotton ginning factory operating costs dropped significantly increased risk,cotton farmers is facing a situation of market price and subsidy funds separation.The implementation plan of cotton target price reform in Xinjiang is an important symbol of cotton market reform in China,and its implementation effect is related to the survival and development of cotton industry chain.Since 1998,the direction of cotton market in our country is to establish the market mechanism under the national macro-control,and establish the market price mechanism under the national macro-control.Among them,the subsidy policy reform is an important measure to adjust and optimize the layout of the cotton industry,and is also an important means to build a market mechanism under the national macro-control.Considering the sound development of cotton industry in Xinjiang,according to the current Cotton Subsidy Policy and development trend in China,this paper mainly analyzes the following problems: From a macro perspective,What is the change of cotton production in Xinjiang under the background of market-oriented reform? What are the aspects of the Cotton Subsidy Policy in the process of market-oriented reform? What is the influence of the change and implementation of Cotton Subsidy Policy on the main body of Xinjiang cotton industry? What is the mechanism of Cotton Subsidy Policy Affecting the distribution of cotton industry chain? In the context of market-oriented reform,what are the effects of the allocation of subsidy funds and the effectiveness of the implementation? On the microscopic level,Cotton trading price fluctuation is reflected in what areas? The change of farmers' planting behavior under different subsidy allocation methods Based on the above problems,the following contents are proposed in this paper:This paper analyzes the market reform of cotton circulation system.In this part,market price support system is used to analyze the market price support and consumer transfer at all stages of the cotton circulation system reform,through quantitative calculation,the paper reviews and analyzes every stage of cotton circulation system reform.This paper analyzes the change of organization process of cotton target price reform in Xinjiang.The cotton target price reform pilot needs to be adjusted according to the actual situation in the specific implementation process,and the core of this adjustment is to simplify the implementation process,as well as the reasonable use of subsidy funds,through the implementation of the scheme by contrast over the years,to analyze the implementation process changes.This paper analyzes the balance of cotton industry chain distribution and the equilibrium condition of cotton industry chain profit maximization.The benefit distribution of cotton industry chain has far-reaching influence on cotton industry,This paper constructs the cotton planting intentions index,andanalyzes each stage of the distribution of benefits of cotton industry chain,and the distribution of interests of Xinjiang cotton industry analysis.Through the construction of supply and demand equilibrium equation,this paper analyzes the benefit transfer relationship of all links in cotton industry,and solves the equilibrium condition of maximizing the benefits of cotton industrial chain.This paper analyzes the implementation effect of the cotton market reform policy.In order to analyze the effect of policy implementation,three aspects of the main exit from the cotton price,subsidy funds allocation and farmers behavior analysis.By constructing the quantile regression model,analyzed from the cotton trading prices reform policies on the market performance;basic analysis by mathematical derivation and Simulation of the distribution of subsidies;through the empirical analysis of the data out of the operation behavior of cotton farmers.According to the above research,this paper draws the following main conclusions:Xinjiang cotton market reform will need to deal with cotton trading and lint exchange.The important role of cotton trade is to protect peasants' income,stabilizing cotton production.Cotton needs to be processed into lint before entering the market transactions,Xinjiang market is mainly concentrated in the cotton trade,lint trading is concentrated outside Xinjiang.Therefore,the transaction price of cotton is the key to reflect the Xinjiang cotton market changes,the price of lint cotton is the key variable that influences the supply and demand of cotton in our country,Research on the process of Xinjiang cotton market,cotton and lint trading transaction needs to be studied separately.The key of cotton market transaction in China is always in lint trading,If the market price of lint trading can be realized,then the policy intervention on the market will be greatly reduced.If the target price is the same as the temporary purchasing and storage price,The target price mechanism and the temporary purchasing and storage policy have different effects on the farmers' income,Temporary storage and purchase policy can bring more income to farmers,and this fixed income objectively stimulated disorderly expansion of cotton production.The subsidy mechanism of target price subsidy will regulate the production and sales of farmers,and will stimulate the production of cotton to concentrate in the advantageous areas.The establishment of cotton subsidy policy needs to proceed from the angle of industrial chain.The implementation and formulation of the cotton subsidy policy should be based on the current economic base and based on the development of the cotton industry.In the field of cotton circulation,the formation mechanism of the market price is not perfectly supported by the market system.The subsidy for cotton production is focus on the technical level,but not on the economic base of the entire cotton industry.The development of cotton industry is highly dependent on the development of the textile industry,and its dependence on foreign trade is relatively high.Therefore,while paying close attention to the problem of cotton production,we should also pay attention to the problem of "selling" in the textile industry,and realize the balance of "production and marketing" of the cotton industry dynamics,which is the decisive factor for the healthy development of the cotton industry.The establishment of cotton subsidy policy needs starting from the cotton industry chain,not only on the cotton farmers.The subject of the agricultural subsidy policy is not only limited to the farmers themselves,the effect of the subsidy policy will be transmitted to every link of the industrial chain.Ensuring the reasonable income level of farmers is the key to the sustainable development of cotton production.Reasonable income is the basic cotton farmers of cotton to cotton driving force.Reasonable income includes current income and expected income of cotton planting.In Xinjiang,the funds needed for farmers to grow cotton are mainly provided by banks.Therefore,the reasonable income of the current period is the guarantee for farmers to repay loans and continue to grow cotton;Reasonable expected return depend on the income,this will have an important impact on the sustainability of cotton farmers.Differential subsidy mechanism is beneficial to guarantee the reasonable income level of farmers.Thestarting point of the implementation of the scheme is to design the total amount of subsidy funds for cotton production in Xinjiang,and then distribute them equally on the basis of yield and area.Only some special cotton is treated differently.When farmers face subsidy policy,there is no room to choose,the risks faced by farmers in the process of cotton production are different due to the differences in geographical and natural environment conditions.Therefore,the government can launch optional program for subsidies and insurance scheme,in order to enhance the ability to resist risks in the process of cotton farmers,and protect reasonable income level of the farmers.In summary,the key to achieve good results of Cotton Subsidy Policy is to ensure the profits of all links in the industrial chain,the key to this goal lies in subsidies and technological progress,and put the two together.Combined with the actual situation in Xinjiang,the concrete measure is to promote machine picking cotton;and establishment of cotton spinning enterprises;subsidies,technical support and preferential policies are also should be given to the cotton industry.Finally,Xinjiang will be transformed from a large cotton producing area into a large cotton processing province,Through the above measures can improve the price competitiveness of raw cotton and cotton yarn,And promote the virtuous circle of the upper reaches of cotton industry chain. |
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