A Study On The Impact Of Local Government Financial Behavior On Industrial Structure Adjustment

Industrial restructuring is the core of modern economic growth.In different historical periods,the connotation of industrial restructuring is bound to be different.China has stepped into a new normal economy and is changing from extensive growth stage to high-quality development stage.The industrial structure is in the transition period from industrial economy to service economy and knowledge economy.The 13 th Five-Year Plan of China and Made-inChina 2025 clearly put forward that industrial structure should be optimized to promote the development of manufacturing industry towards high-end,intelligent,green and service.Industrial restructuring has been entrusted with the historic task of energy saving and emission reduction and environmental optimization while maintaining economic growth.Service-oriented,high-tech and green industrial structure will inevitably become the three core directions of industrial restructuring in China.At the same time,compared with foreign local governments,Chinese local governments have strong financial power,which plays a decisive role in regional economic growth and industrial restructuring.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of local government financial behavior on industrial restructuring.The research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the dual attributes of local governments,this paper analyses the role orientation of local governments in the relationship between government and market,and the related theories of the role orientation of local governments in the relationship between central and local governments,expounds the theory of fiscal decentralization,and explains theoretically that the degree of marketization and decentralization determines the behavior of local governments,thus affecting the industrial structure.It analyses the connotation of industrial structure,the theory of adjustment path and the influencing factors of industrial structure change.(2)This paper analyses the behavioral pattern of local governments in China and its impact on fiscal revenue and expenditure and studies the micro-mechanism of local governments' financial behavior affecting industrial structure.For example,the local government's "competitive" financial behavior can affect the decision-making of enterprises,thus affecting the regional flow of capital,human capital and other factors of production,and then affecting the industrial structure of other regions.That is to say,the fiscal behavior of one region has spatial spillover effect on the industrial structure of other regions.(3)The spatial agglomeration characteristics and evolution trend of industrial restructuring are analyzed in depth.Based on the three indicators of high-tech industrial structure,green industrial structure and service industrial structure,the principal component analysis method is used to construct the industrial structure adjustment index.The results of global and local Moran indices show that there is a positive spatial autocorrelation relationship in the adjustment of industrial structure in China,showing a trend of high and low agglomeration,that is,the areas with high industrial structure adjustment coefficient are mainly concentrated in the eastern region,while the areas with low industrial structure adjustment coefficient are mainly concentrated in the Western and some central regions.(4)The impact of local government fiscal behavior on industrial restructuring under the spatial effect is studied.Using spatial econometric modeling technology,this paper empirically studies the impact of local fiscal revenue and expenditure behavior on industrial restructuring from the two dimensions of aggregate and fiscal revenue and expenditure structure,and uses partial differential method to decompose spatial spillover effect into spatial direct spillover effect and indirect spillover effect.The results show that:(1)in terms of total amount,the fiscal expenditure behavior of local governments will have a significant positive impact on the industrial restructuring of the region and its adjacent areas;and the fiscal revenue behavior of local governments will have a significant negative impact on the industrial restructuring of the region and its adjacent areas.(2)In terms of sub-items,each sub-item of local government revenue and expenditure has different spatial spillover effects on industrial restructuring.Therefore,the adjustment of the scale of fiscal revenue and expenditure and the structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure by local governments in a region will not only have an impact on the adjustment of industrial structure in the region,but also on the adjustment of industrial structure in the neighbouring regions.(5)The influence of local government financial behavior on industrial restructuring under market-oriented differences is studied.In order to avoid the errors caused by the subjective division of the region's market-oriented degree,the threshold effect model is used to study the impact of local government's fiscal revenue and expenditure behavior on industrial restructuring with the change of market-oriented degree,especially the inflection point value of the corresponding market-oriented level when the local government's fiscal and tax expenditure behavior has a positive effect.The results show that marketization has a significant double threshold effect on fiscal revenue and expenditure.The effect of fiscal revenue and expenditure of local governments on industrial restructuring is negative-positiveweak-positive-strong.When the degree of marketization is greater than a certain inflection point,the effect of fiscal revenue and expenditure of local governments on industrial restructuring changes from negative to positive.With the further improvement of marketization,the effect of fiscal revenue and expenditure of local governments on industrial restructuring changes from negative to positive.The positive impact of local government expenditure and income behavior on industrial restructuring will be further enhanced.The implication of this conclusion is to improve the degree of marketization,which will help to play the role of local government's fiscal revenue and expenditure behavior in promoting China's industrial restructuring.(6)The influence of local government's fiscal behavior on industrial structure adjustment under decentralization difference is studied.Using the threshold effect model,this paper studies the changing trend of local government's fiscal revenue and expenditure behavior on industrial restructuring with the change of decentralization degree.The results show that decentralization has a significant double threshold effect on fiscal expenditure and income behavior.With the increasing degree of decentralization,the impact of local government expenditure on industrial restructuring shows a positive-positive-weak-positive trend.The influence of local government's income behavior on industrial restructuring shows a positive-negative-positive trend.When the degree of decentralization is higher than a certain threshold,the fiscal expenditure and revenue behavior of local governments can promote industrial restructuring.The implication of this conclusion is to improve the degree of decentralization,which will help to play the role of local government's fiscal revenue and expenditure behavior in promoting China's industrial restructuring.To sum up,this paper analyses the influence mechanism of local government's fiscal behavior on industrial structure,studies the spatial agglomeration characteristics and evolution trend of industrial structure adjustment,and empirically studies the influence of local government's fiscal behavior on industrial structure adjustment from three different aspects: spatial effect,marketization difference and decentralization difference,which has good theoretical value and application value.