Research On Coordination And Network Equilibrium Of Agricultural Supply Chain With Demand Affected By Multiple Factors

In recent years,the "No 1 document" of the CPC Central Committee has continuously regarded agriculture,rural areas and farmers as the top priority of the Party’s work.Agricultural products are not only related to the food safety and economic development,but also important guarantees for national prosperity,social harmony and stability.At present,there are many varieties of agricultural products in our country,the output is large,the consumer demands are diversified,and these factors also lead to more extensive and violent changes and uncertainties in the market demand of agricultural products than those in the past.Due to the lack of scientific and sufficient means of production and selling decision-making,the production decision and selling decision of agricultural supply chain are often difficult to match with the change of market demand.At the same time,agricultural products are different from general products.They have the characteristics of long production lead time,easy deterioration and corrosion,concentrated sales period,and almost no residual value,etc.Therefore,when the production and selling decision of agricultural supply chain does not match with market demand,it will inevitably lead to the waste of agricultural products and the loss of the supply chain.In view of this,on the basis of domestic and international research and related theories,such as agricultural supply chain management,agricultural supply chain coordination,agricultural supply chain competitive game and government supervision of agricultural product quality,this paper,guided by the market demand of agricultural products,studies the production and selling decision,quality and safety supervision and other management problems of agricultural supply chain.First of all,it studies the market environment of stochastic fluctuations in demand.This paper combines option with contract farming,and presents an optimal option contract for agricultural supply chain,so as to realize coordination and information sharing of supply chain.On this basis,the validity and practicability of the optimal option contract are verified by numerical analysis and a case study on autumn peach sales.Secondly,it studies the market environment where demand is affected by consumers’ preferences,product quality grades and the level of efforts by all parties in the supply chain respectively.This paper constructs the agricultural supply chain network models based on the network equilibrium theory for each case.Through these models,the competition and cooperation among network members in different environments are described,and the decision-making behaviors of producers,retailers and consumer markets are analyzed.On this basis,the optimal production and selling strategies of supply chain members facing with changing demand are discussed,that will help to improve the profits of the parties and enhance the overall performance of the supply chain.Finally,this paper aims at the decision-making behavior of producers in competitive agricultural supply chain and the incentive and supervision mechanism on agricultural product quality and safety of relevant government departments under the environment of fluctuating demand.A supply chain network decision model based on Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot competition is constructed.Then the effect of incentive and supervision mechanism on improving the quality and safety level of agricultural products in the market is discussed,and a reasonable mechanism is obtained on this basis to ensure that the agricultural supply chain provides the market with safe and satisfactory agricultural products.The results indicate that:(i)adopting the optimal option contract can strengthen the cooperation between producer and retailer,realize the coordination of supply chain and information sharing,so as to resist the fluctuation of demand;(ii)with the improvement of consumers’ preference for organic product,the production and sale of organic product will ultimately help increase the income of producers and retailers,while the profits of producers will decrease first and then increase;(iii)the production and sale of agricultural products with different quality grades will benefit all the producers,retailers and consumers,and it is unwise to rely on high-end market consumption alone;(iv)maintaining the same level of effort by all parties in the supply chain helps to increase profits for themselves and the whole supply chain,and if the same level of effort cannot be maintained,optimal decisions need to be made based on the level of efforts by upstream or downstream and competitors;(v)by implementing reasonable incentive and supervision mechanism,the relevant government departments can promote the producers to standardize their production,thus significantly will help improve the quality and safety level of agricultural products in the market.To sum up,in the face of the complex market demand environment,the agricultural supply chain should adopt the strategy that combines cooperation and competition,and constantly improve the standardization and refinement of agricultural products production and selling progress.This research enriches the theory of agricultural supply chain management,and the research results can provide scientific decision theory approach and basis for agricultural supply chain.This research has important practical significance to improve the income of agricultural supply chain and the level of agricultural product quality.