Agricultural Products Supply Chain Coordination Model Research With Uncertain Environment

In our country, the development of agriculture is the foundation of national economy, the sustained and stable development of agriculture can greatly promote the rapid growth of national economy, as well as the social stability. Recent years, in terms of the integration pattern of agricultural production and marketing, we have put forward many innovative suggestions and measures. In 2008, the "Communique of the Promotion of Farm-Supermarket Connection" is jointly issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Agriculture of China, and the Farm-Supermarket Connection is becoming the main circulation mode for fresh agricultural products in the future. In addition, the agricultural leading enterprises all over the country are pushing agricultural products brand management, in order to solve widespread "hard sell" problem. Both the FSC and the brand specializes can improve the situation of "small farmers and large market" in a certain extent, but for the interests of the agricultural producers (or farmers) hasn’t improved obviously yet. It’s mainly because the unequal status and risk between producers and vendors. As in previous years, despite agricultural prices rose considerably, but farmers incomes did not achieve the corresponding multiplier, and this phenomenon deepened people’s thinking that how to coordinate the agricultural products supply chain and how to distribute the profit.This paper takes the view of uncertain environment in the agricultural products supply chain, and establishes the coordination joint decision model which is about the quantity of inputs, prices. And we also study the supply chain coordination mechanism under the restriction of risk. Finally we conclude the measures to improve agricultural products supply chain and protect farmers’interests.The thesis mainly from the following aspects:Firstly, this paper briefly introduces the agricultural products supply chain’s concept, characteristics and present situation. And on this basis, we discuss the theories about supply chain coordination, uncertainty analysis and risk quantification.Secondly, according to the analysis of the status quo of Chinese agricultural products supply chain’s structure and the characteristics of the producers which are small, scattered and in weak position, we analysis joint decisions for ordering and pricing through establishing Stackelberg game model between enterprises and farmers. Then we introduce risk measurement models to quantify producers’ and retailers’ risk attitudes which are caused by the uncertainties of output and demand, and analysis the measures to realize the coordination and optimization of the agricultural products supply chain with different contracts.Finally, considering the supply chain members’ different risk attitudes, we introduce different contracts to discuss how to set up the contract parameters to realize the pareto improvement of the agricultural products supply chain, and reasonably distribute the profits between farmers and retailers.