The Model Of Competitive Diffusion Based On The Competitive Market

The innovation diffusion theory has been widely used in the research of innovation product diffusion since sixth decade of twenty century. The diffusion models have become the main domain of market theory when the Bass model was brought forward in1969. The Bass model and its extended models are used widely in the aspects of different areas, and have been proved credible.With the development of science and technology, there is more than one innovation diffusion in the complex market competition. There is complex relationship among different innovation diffusions in order to achieve the ideal market share, and the typical relationship is competition relationship. Although Bass model describes and forecasts new product diffusion quite well, it is not fit to forecast new product diffusion in competitive market for the hypothesis monopoly. With the concept of competitive diffusion, this paper proposes a new model to forecast the competitive diffusion combining Bass model, P-M model and Lotka-Volterra model called competitive Bass model. The competitive coefficient expresses the interaction and the competition mode. This new model is built to resolve the following three questions:1) To reveal the relationship of the products in the competitive market;2) To describe the difference of the competition of the products;3) To estimate the market potential affected by the multi-products competition pattern.This paper introduces systematically the conditions of the competitive bass model’s application, the methods of parameter estimation and the procedures of the model’s application. This paper has used the data of3G phones users from the three operators in China and the proper parameter estimation method to estimate the competitive coefficient of the three operators. The validity of the model has been proved.