Aging Of Labor Force,Agricultural Productive Services And Grain Yield

The important weapon of the country is the foundation of the founding of the country,and the grain of a country is the foundation of a country.As the most populous country in the world,China is not only a big grain production country,but also a big country of grain consumption and an import.Grain security is not only the most direct and realistic problem in China’s agriculture,but also the bottom line of national economic and social security.Since the eighteen Party’s Congress,general secretary Xi Jinping has put forward a series of strategic thoughts and scientific judgements on the state’s grain security,and made the judgement that "Tight balance is likely to be a long-term trend of grain security in China,and if it is not adjusted well,it will be unbalanced,emphasized that the guarantee of the national Grain security is an eternal topic.Always adhere to the National Grain security strategy:"Based on ourselves,Based on the domestic,ensure production capacity,moderate import,scientific and technological support".Xi Jinping ensured that the grain is substantially self-sufficient and absolute safety of grain ration.However,in the past 40 years of reform and opening up,with the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization,the low efficiency of agricultural competition leads to the lack of comparative advantage in farming.A large number of rural young and middle-aged high-quality labor force continue to "non-agricultural" transfer,and the quantity and quality of agricultural labor supply are declining.The change of rural population structure has brought a significant change in the age structure of agricultural labor force,which is manifested in the prominent problem of the aging of agricultural labor force.According to a survey by the China Center for Aging Sciences,62.7%,47.6% and 29.2% of the elderly aged 60-64,65-69 and 70-74 in rural areas are still engaged in agricultural production.With the gradual disappearance of the "demographic dividend",the old-generation of farmers are gradually withdrawing from agriculture.In the future,"who will farm","how to farm" and how to ensure Grain security will become the urgent questions to be answered.According to the theory of human capital put forward by Schulz and Becker and other experts,the aging agricultural labor force is affected by the factors such as the accelerated decline of physiological function and the rigid ideology.In theory,the aging of agricultural labor force will have a negative impact on grain yield,even endanger Grain security.But the reality is that China’s total grain output has increased from 113.18 million tons in 1949 to 657.89 million tons in 2018,especially from 2004 to 2015,the aging of China’s agricultural labor force and the "twelve consecutive increases" of grain output coexist at the same time.What is the logic behind this? At present,there is no final conclusion in the academic circle,so it is necessary to further deepen the research.In recent years,although a large number of new types of agricultural main bodies have emerged and most of them are young and middle-aged,but the necessary links of grain production are still mainly employed in the rural elderly.China’s grain crisis is still lurking,The cultivated land area has approached the red line of 1.8 billion mu,and the per capita cultivated land area is less than 1.5 mu,less than 50% of the world average level.The phenomenon of rural cultivated land being occupied,abandoning wasteland and "double changing order" is prominent,which restricts the stable growth of grain output.At present,under the complex and changeable international situation,the trade friction between China and the United States is escalating.The problem of eating for nearly 1.4 billion people is neither realistic nor safe to excessively rely on imports.Xi Jinping pointed out that upholding and improving the rural basic operation system must not be shaken." per capita one-mu three-point land,each household is less than ten mu,and the topography is complex and diverse",which is China’s agricultural situation,which determines that many areas cannot engage in large-scale agriculture and large-scale machinery operations like Europe and the United States,but to achieve the organic connection between small-scale farmers and modern agricultural development by improving the agricultural socialized service system.It means that family management is still an important part of the main body of agricultural management,and agricultural modernization does not mean driving out small farmers.Foreign experience shows that the aging process of agricultural labor force is not a short-term transition phenomenon.Therefore,it will be difficult to solve the contradiction between the aging of agricultural labor force and the stable growth of grain production in a long period in the future.Therefore,how to explain the coexistence of the aging of agricultural labor force and the "12 consecutive increase" of grain output is a major issue of national grain security.This paper introduces the concept of human capital,takes agricultural productive services as a regulating variable,constructs a theoretical framework to analyze the relationship between the aging of labor force,agricultural productive services and grain yield.Based on this framework,this paper makes an in-depth study on the coexistence of the aging of agricultural labor force and the "Twelve consecutive increases" of grain yield in China from both theoretical and empirical aspects.By using the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2016,this paper empirically investigates the relationship between the aging of agricultural labor force,agricultural productive services and the stable growth of grain production.However,in view of the limitations and availability of macro data,does the aging of agricultural labor force have a heterogeneous impact on grain yield under the definition of different age starting point of aging agricultural labor force? What is the regulatory effect of different agricultural productive services on the relationship between labor aging and grain yield? Is there a special relationship between the improvement of cultivated land conditions,agricultural productive services,the aging of labor force and grain production brought about by the garden field or high standard farmland construction policy? What is the internal logic? It is difficult to use provincial panel data for empirical test.Therefore,this paper will turn the research perspective to the micro farmer level,using the survey data of Jiangxi Province in 2015 to further empirical investigation.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Under the background that China’s grain supply is relatively sufficient,the adverse effects of the aging of agricultural labor force on grain production have been concealed for a long time.The truth is that when other conditions remain unchanged,the aging of agricultural labor force will have a negative impact on grain yield,and the main impact mechanisms are "health and physical decline effect" and "path dependence effect".(2)On the whole,agricultural productive services have a positive regulatory effect on the relationship between labor aging and grain yield.From the perspective of subdividing different types of agricultural productive services.First,agricultural science and technology training services don’t have a positive regulatory role for the time being,which is mainly due to the fact that China’s aging agricultural labor force relies too much on farming experience,the low enthusiasm,recognition and application level of agricultural science and technology training,and the mismatch between supply and demand of agricultural science and technology training.Second,the agricultural machinery operation service has a positive regulatory effect on the relationship between the aging of labor force and grain yield.The main mechanism is that the Agricultural Mechanization Service greatly reduces the requirements of grain yield on labor force in health,physical strength,intelligence,etc.,making it possible for the aged agricultural labor force to engage in grain yield and promoting the agricultural " grain-oriented ".(3)The improvement of cultivated land conditions has strengthened the positive regulatory role of agricultural productive services,and thus significantly alleviated the adverse impact of agricultural labor aging on grain yield.The main mechanism is that the improvement of farmland conditions brought about by the high standard farmland construction is more conducive to improving the supply and application level of agricultural machinery operation service,promoting the positive adjustment of agricultural machinery operation service industry on the aging of labor force and grain output,and then alleviating the adverse impact of aging agricultural labor force on grain output.(4)Compared with the 65 as old agricultural labor age starting point standard proposed in this paper,take 50,55 and 60 as old agricultural labor age starting point standard,the aging agricultural labor force don’t have significant negative effect on grain production;According to different grain varieties,the aging of agricultural labor has significant negative effect on rice,corn and wheat production Influence.Agricultural productive services also play a positive role in regulating the relationship between the aging agricultural labor force and the production of rice,corn and wheat;from the perspective of distinguishing different grain regions,the aging of agricultural labor force has a negative effect on the grain production in the main grain producing areas,but not on the non main grain producing areas.Agricultural productive services have played a positive role in regulating the relationship between the aging of grain labor force and grain production in both the main and non main grain producing areas.(5)The positive regulatory effect of agricultural productive services on the relationship between the aging of labor force and grain production is less than the negative effect of the aging of labor force on grain yield.This shows that there are other regulatory factors that have a positive regulatory effect on the relationship between labor aging and grain yield.This paper is divided into seven chapters,including introduction,concept definition,literature review,theoretical analysis,practical investigation,empirical analysis,research conclusions,policy recommendations and prospects.Relevant research conclusions are conducive to deepen understanding of the conceptual logic behind the coexistence of the aging of agricultural labor force and the "Twelve consecutive increases" in grain output,and are expected to provide reasonable explanations to some extent based on the existing literature about the impact of the aging of labor force on grain output,which is helpful to solve the problem of aging of agricultural labor force and ensure national grain security The new ideas and new enlightenment also provide policy basis and theoretical support for the agricultural productive service industry and high standard farmland construction that the central government is vigorously developing,which not only has general economic and social significance,but also has prominent political significance.