Study On The Impact Of Aging Of Agricultural Labor Force On Agricultural Production

The aging of the population is an inevitable population development trend in all countries of the world,and it is a common and universal concern of the world.As China’s population aging process continues to accelerate,China’s agricultural labor force is aging,and it has become a problem that cannot be ignored in China’s economic transformation.As the basis for China’s comprehensive modernization,large-scale agricultural labor has been continuously transferred to cities and towns under the dual effects of internal thrust and external tension,forcing the elderly to become the protagonists of agricultural production.With the rapid development of science and technology and the continuous advancement of agricultural modernization,the aging of agricultural labor brings opportunities for the development of agriculture.In order to clarify whether the aging of the agricultural labor force will affect agricultural production and the extent of its impact? In the context of the aging of agricultural labor force,how to guarantee China’s grain production capacity and agricultural output,this paper takes Shandong,Henan and Anhui as the main grain producing provinces as an example.Based on the research of fixed-track farmers for many years,based on literature review and The theory of population change,the theory of surplus labor and the theory of farmer behavior define the concept of population aging and the aging of agricultural labor,select indicators related to aging and agricultural production,and construct panel fixed effect models and panel threshold models from agricultural production inputs and agricultural production.Exploring the impact of the aging of agricultural labor on agricultural production in two aspects,in order to propose reasonable,effective and effective policy recommendations for agricultural production in China in the context of the aging of agricultural labor.The research content is divided into the following four parts:The first part combs the domestic and international literature on agricultural aging and its impact on agricultural production and reviews related theories,and defines the concept of aging of agricultural labor;the second part analyzes the status quo of agricultural aging and agricultural production from macro statistics and micro The survey data is summarized at two levels,and the causes are analyzed.The third part analyzes the model of the impact of agricultural labor aging on agricultural production factors input and agricultural output by selecting appropriate indicators.The fourth part draws the research conclusions based on the empirical results and the test research and proposes corresponding policy recommendations.The results show that: First,the aging of the agricultural labor force in Shandong,Henan and Anhui provinces is deepening,the proportion of the working-age population is decreasing,the dependency ratio of the elderly is increasing,the rural population structure is aging seriously,and the average age of the agricultural households of the sample households is 56.At the age of 10,the number of households with an aging population above 50% accounted for 11.76%,and the degree of aging was serious.The micro-survey data were consistent with macro-statistical data analysis.Moreover,the education level of the agricultural labor force in the old age is generally low,and the labor investment per acre is longer,but the capital investment and land investment are insufficient,and the food crops are more inclined to grow,and the willingness to continue to operate is lower.Second,with the increase of the age of agricultural labor,farmers’ land input,labor input,and capital investment all show an inverted “U” trend,and the aging of agricultural labor forces constraints on labor and capital supply.Third,the aging of the agricultural labor force will directly promote the agricultural output.On the indirect impact path,as the labor age increases,the contribution of land input and capital investment to agricultural output shows a significant double threshold effect.The marginal remuneration of land input shows an increasing trend,while the marginal remuneration of capital input shows the trend of “U” type change of the trend of increasing first and then decreasing.Therefore,increasing land input and capital investment is beneficial to increase the per capita income and agricultural output of farmers.Labor input is only conducive to the improvement of agricultural output before 68.5 years old.After 68.5 years old,it will hinder the improvement of agricultural output,and its marginal reward will show a decreasing trend.Therefore,the aging of the agricultural labor force should not be pessimistic,and the aging of the agricultural labor force brings opportunities for China’s agricultural development.Finally,based on the above conclusions,three suggestions are proposed: firstly,encourage the establishment of agricultural socialization service institutions,increase the degree of agricultural intensification,and improve agricultural output through capital and technology intensification.Second,guide moderate land transfer and create preconditions for scale management.Finally,we must continue to improve the rural old-age security system and cultivate new agricultural management entities.