An Empirical Analysis Of The Influence Of Rural Labor Aging On Chinese Agricultural Economy And Its Spatial Effect

The population aging is an inevitable problem in the process of economic development.According to the survey conducted by the China Center for Aging Science,the problem of population aging is more serious in rural areas.Due to the large number of rural young laborers moving to urban areas,the structure of rural population has changed.At present,Chinese rural population aging is characterized by large scale,rapid growth and so on.With the development of industrialization and urbanization,a large number of youths in rural have flooded into cities,which has increased the proportion of rural population aging.The rapid urbanization has brought huge population movements and rural middle-aged people make a living in cities.The State Council predicts that the rural outflow population will be about 200 million during the period of 2016-2020,which will slow down the aging of the urban population.At the same time,the problem of population aging in rural areas has become increasingly serious.Agriculture is the basis for the smooth operation of national economy and the basic elements of agricultural development include labor input and agricultural capital and so on.Under the background of population aging,the rural population aging will directly lead to insufficient supply of rural labor and affect agricultural labor input.The aging of rural labor will bring negative effects to rural economic development in the short-term.The aging of rural labor can promote the scale of agricultural production in the long-term.The efficiency of agricultural production is promoted by strengthening the standardization of land transfer and enhancing the operation of mechanized agricultural production.This paper does not regard the national population aging problem as the research object,but it chooses the impact of rural labor aging on agricultural economy as the entry point to better consider the impact of population aging on rural labor.The most of previous research literature only consider the urban population aging problem when studying the problem of population aging,and they do not consider the particularity of rural population aging,which ignored the impact of rural labor mobility on rural population aging.This paper takes the rural labor aging as the research object.The research content is followed:1.According to the relevant statistical yearbook,the paper describes the status of rural labor aging in China and the status of agricultural economic development,and it finds out the reasons of rural labor aging.2.Use the vector error correct model to study the impact of rural population aging on agricultural labor input,and then calculate Moran's I statistic to analyze the global and local spatial distribution characteristics of rural labor aging in China.3.The spatial panel model was constructed by using C-D production function model to analyze the direct effect and spillover effect of rural labor aging on agricultural output.The results show that the rural population aging is deeper and the participation rate of agricultural labor is decreasing.From the age structure of rural areas and cities,the proportion of rural population aged 65-89 is significantly higher than that of cities.At the same time,this paper adopts the gray prediction model to predict that the degree of aging in rural areas will further deepen in the future.The deepening of rural aging has indirectly led to the reduction of agricultural labor input.The causality analysis of rural aging,rural population growth index and agricultural labor input has been carried out.It shows that rural aging will indirectly affect the agricultural labor input.Through the analysis of the spatial distribution of agricultural labor input,rural population aging,agricultural labor transfer rate and urbanization rate,it is found that the agricultural labor input,rural population aging,agricultural labor transfer rate and urbanization rate show space positive autocorrelation in different regions.Faced with the impact of the aging of the rural labor force on agricultural output,it is necessary to proceed from the overall situation and coordinate development.