| With the "Three Agricultural Issues" rising to the height of the national strategy,various sectors of society have begun to offer suggestions to solve this problem.Among them,the analysis of the agricultural population aging and its impacts on the agricultural economy is one of the important topics in the study of agriculture,demography and labor economics etc.According to NBS data,the proportion of people aged 45-64 in the agricultural labor force has increased from 33.48%in 2006 to 43.48%in 2016,which means that nearly half of the population in agricultural production belongs to the elderly population,which will certainly have an impact on agricultural production.Before me,some scholars have studied the aging of agricultural population and agricultural economy,but some of the research objects are limited to a city or a short period of time,which makes the research results controversial.Therefore,the purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between the two,in order to solve the problems left by history,promote the process of agricultural modernization,and promote the coordinated and harmonious development of the national economy.Firstly,this paper collects data from 1999-2016 including but not limited to China Statistical Yearbook,China Agricultural Yearbook,China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook,Agricultural Census and the Annual Statistical Yearbook of provinces and municipalities.Secondly,considering the nature of the work of agricultural workers and the availability of data,I choose "the proportion of rural population aged 65 years and over to the total rural population aged 15 years and above"as the main explanatory variable to calculate the "aging rate of agricultural labor force".The other 10 control variables include the average years of schooling,the per capita medical and health expenditure,the per capita power possession of agricultural machinery,the effective irrigation area of crops,the amount of fertilizer application,the affected area of crops,the planting area of crops and the urbanization rate.Then,the extended logarithmic production function including aging rate,human capital,material capital,technological level and other factors is constructed.Finally,the panel data regression model was used to test the impact of the aging of agricultural labor force on agricultural labor productivity in the "national","high-income areas" and "low-income areas".The results show that:(1)on the whole,the aging degree of agricultural labor force in China has no negative impact on the improvement of agricultural labor productivity,but the results are different in high-income and low-income regions.(2)Aging has a positive impact on the whole country and high-income areas,and the positive impact of high-income areas is greater.Specifically,when the aging rate rises 1%,labor productivity will increase by 1.07%because of the production experience of the elderly labor force,while low-income areas are opposite.(3)In the impact of human capital investment on labor productivity,per capita health care expenditure in the three regions are significantly positive,the average length of education in the whole country and high-income regions is positive,while in low-income regions is negative.Analytical results show that the impact of labor aging on agricultural productivity varies with regional income differences.This provides a basis for this paper to further propose that while coordinating urban and rural development,we should also pay attention to the impact of income disparity among different areas in rural areas. |
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