| Since the reform and opening up,China's rapid urbanization,accelerating the agglomeration of resource elements to cities,driving industrial upgrading and the development of emerging industries have always been an important driving force for sustained and healthy economic development.The rapid development of eastern cities has promoted the rise of central and Western cities,and strongly promoted the coordinated development of the region.In 2018,the urbanization rate of China's permanent population was 59.58%.There is still much room to improve the level of developed countries.The continuous improvement of urbanization level will provide a sustained impetus for economic development.Especially,since the Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the major contradictions of China's economic and social development have undergone profound changes.The national economy has changed from high-speed growth to high-quality development.Solving the imbalance of regional development has become the theme of the times.The state implements the strategy of coordinated regional development,and the construction and development of urban agglomerations has become the main body of urbanization.In the 13th Five-Year Plan,19 urban agglomerations have been planned and constructed.Among them,the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,the development of the Yangtze River Economic Zone,the construction of the Great Bay Area of Guangdong,Hong Kong,Macao and the regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta have become national strategies.The development of urban agglomeration will be a powerful driving force for China's expansion of domestic demand and economic transformation.Reasonable promotion of urbanization and optimization and upgrading of industrial structure are conducive to sustainable urban economic growth.In the process of urbanization,the reform of the real estate market has played a great role in promoting the development of the real estate industry,Urban economic growth is highly dependent on the development of the real estate industry,and residents' consumption plays a fundamental role in urban economic growth.Meanwhile,urban specialization and diversified agglomeration patterns have also played an important role in industrial agglomeration and sustained economic growth in the process of urbanization,and in this process,human capital also plays an important role.With the advancement of urbanization,the division of labor and cooperation among urban industries,the level of urban spatial agglomeration has been continuously strengthened.Regional development mainly based on urban agglomeration has gradually become the focus of regional economic development.Promoting the development of urban agglomeration will also have an important impact on urban economic growth and regional integration development.Therefore,industrial restructuring,real estate investment and resident consumption,urban specialization and diversification,and urban agglomeration development are closely related to urbanization.Based on economic theory,This paper makes theoretical analysis and empirical research on urbanization and urban agglomeration development in China from four aspects:the impact of urbanization and industrial restructuring on economic growth,the impact of urban real estate investment and resident consumption on economic growth,the impact of urban specialization,diversification and human capital on economic growth,and the impact of urban agglomeration and industrial restructuring on regional disparity.1.This paper theoretically demonstrates the economic mechanism of inverted U-shaped curve between urbanization rate and urban output,and empirically analyses the urban output effect of urbanization rate and industrial structure of cities of different scales based on urban panel data model.This paper theoretically demonstrates the economic mechanism of inverted U-shaped curve between urbanization rate and urban output,and constructs a theoretical framework for analyzing the impact mechanism of urbanization level and industrial structure on urban output.Using panel data of 264 cities at prefecture level and above in China from 2003 to 2015,and using the PD-GMM method of panel data model,four panel data models of urbanization rate and industrial structure on urban output(four types of extra large,large,medium and small cities)are established.The corresponding empirical research conclusions are as follows:(1)There is an obvious inverted U-shaped curve relationship between urbanization rate and urban output of four types of cities,but there are differences in the appropriate urbanization rate corresponding to the optimal per capita output of cities.When the optimal per capita output of cities is reached,the corresponding appropriate urbanization rate is between 80.81 and 41.01.According to economic theory analysis,the same is true.To enable the people of all kinds of cities to achieve the goal of maximizing welfare.(2)There are differences in the impact of industrial restructuring on the output of cities of different sizes.Industrial development is still the main driving force to enhance urban economic growth in the current period of time.(3)In all kinds of cities,fiscal expenditure promotes the upgrading of human capital by improving the supply of infrastructure,increasing the efficiency of urban spatial agglomeration,and increasing investment in education and scientific research innovation,so as to enhance the efficiency of urban economic growth.2.Establish the panel data model of the impact of real estate investment and consumption level on urban output,and analyze the urban output effect of real estate investment and consumption level in different regions and small and medium-sized cities.Based on endogenous economic growth theory,using panel data of 253 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2016,this paper divides urban samples into three parts:east,middle and West according to regional differences.According to the standards of small and medium-sized cities,urban samples are divided into two parts:medium-sized cities and small-sized cities.Using PD-GMM method,five panel data models(eastern,central and western cities and small and medium-sized cities)for estimating the impact of real estate investment and consumption level on urban output are established and estimated.The corresponding empirical research conclusions are as follows:(1)There is an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between urban real estate investment level and urban output.In the early stage of urban development,urban output will increase with the improvement of urban real estate investment level until the point where the marginal income of urban real estate investment level reaches zero,and urban output will tend to decrease with the improvement of urban real estate investment level.Whether divided into eastern,central and western cities in different regions,or small and medium-sized cities,the theory is valid.(2)The level of urban consumption is positively correlated with urban output,that is,to improve consumption level and further release consumption potential is conducive to urban economic growth.The more developed the urban economy and the larger the scale of the city,the greater the positive effect of consumption level on urban output.(3)The continuous increase of real estate investment will weaken the positive effect of consumption level on urban output.The more developed the urban economy,the larger the scale of the city,the more obvious the weakening effect.(4)The improvement of urban infrastructure level is conducive to the interconnection of regional urban infrastructure,the effective flow of inter-city factor resources,and the increase of urban output.The level of government expenditure and the upgrading of industrial structure characteristics have promoted urban economic growth in varying degrees.3.It demonstrates that northeastern cities have formed a "center-periphery”urban structure characterized by urban specialization,mechanical manufacturing industry clustering in central cities and raw material industry clustering in peripheral cities.It also empirically analyses the urban output effect of northeastern cities'specialization,diversification and human capital.Based on the theory of urban specialization and diversification,this paper analyses the characteristics of urban structure system in Northeast China,which is characterized by urban specialization,mechanical manufacturing industry gathering in central cities,raw material industry gathering in peripheral cities,and the transition to urban diversification.Using panel data of 34 prefecture-level cities in three provinces of northeast China(Liaoning,Jilin and Heilongjiang)from 2003 to 2016,and using the PD-GMM method,five panel data models(Liaoning,Jilin,Heilongjiang,Central and South Liaoning and Hachangcheng City Clusters)were established and estimated for the impacts of urban specialization,diversification and human capital on urban output.The corresponding empirical research conclusions are as follows:(1)There is an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between urban specialization level and urban output in Northeast China.In the early stage of urban development,urban output will increase with the improvement of urban specialization level until the point where the marginal income of urban specialization level reaches zero,and urban output will decrease with the improvement of urban specialization level.(2)The level of urban diversification is positively correlated with urban output,that is to say,industrial diversification in northeastern cities is conducive to urban economic growth.(3)The improvement of human capital level is conducive to the increase of urban output in Northeast China.(4)The upgrading of urban infrastructure level is conducive to the interconnection of regional urban infrastructure and the effective flow of inter-city factor resources.This is especially important for the northeast region with outstanding urban specialization characteristics,and is conducive to the formation of industrial innovation system of urban division of labor and cooperation.The upgrading of investment level and industrial structure characteristics has promoted the economic growth of Northeast cities to varying degrees4.The economic mechanism of inverted U-shaped curve between urban agglomeration and regional disparity is theoretically demonstrated.Based on the urban panel data model,the impact of urban agglomeration and industrial structure on regional disparity in the Yangtze River Economic Zone is empirically analyzed.This paper theoretically demonstrates the economic mechanism of inverted U-shaped curve between urban agglomeration and regional disparity,and constructs a theoretical framework for analyzing the impact of urban agglomeration and industrial structure on regional disparity.Based on the theoretical framework and panel data of 70 cities at or above the level of Yangtze River Economic Zone covering three urban agglomerations(Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,middle reaches urban agglomeration and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration)from 2003 to 2015,this paper establishes three panel data models(three different urban agglomerations)for the impact of urban agglomeration and industrial structure on regional disparity by using the PD-GMM method of panel data model.The conclusions of the corresponding empirical analysis are as follows:(1)There is an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between the urban agglomeration of the three urban agglomerations(Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,middle reaches urban agglomeration,Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration)and the regional disparity between the central city and the surrounding cities,and the vertex of the inverted U-shaped curve is calculated.The results show that the three urban agglomerations are still on the left side of the inverted "U" curve,and the regional disparity between the central and peripheral cities of the three urban agglomerations will further expand with the increase of urban agglomeration level.In the short term,the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has approached the critical point,which will be crossed over a period of time.Then,with the increase of urban agglomeration level,the regional disparity will narrow.(2)There is a significant positive correlation between the industrial structure difference variables and regional disparity variables in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,the middle reaches urban agglomeration and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration,which shows that the central city pays attention to the promotion of the proportion of service industry,especially the modern service industry,while peripheral cities undertake the transfer of manufacturing industry in central cities,and the industrial structure of peripheral cities and central cities forms a complementary trend,which is conducive to narrowing the regional gap.(3)In the three urban agglomerations,the difference of infrastructure level and investment scale between central city and peripheral city will increase the regional gap between central city and peripheral city.Therefore,the main body of this paper has three innovative points:(1)Based on the theory of urban economics,this paper analyses the various stages of urbanization development,puts forward the appropriate urbanization rate,studies the existence of different appropriate urbanization rates in different cities of different scales,and conducts empirical tests,and concludes that there are different appropriate urbanization rates in different cities of different scales.It provides reference for policy making of urbanization construction and industrial structure optimization and upgrading in China.(2)This paper demonstrates theoretically that there exists an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between urban agglomeration and regional disparity.In the early stage of urban agglomeration,there exists an asymmetric equilibrium.In the middle stage of urban agglomeration,the regional disparity increases further with the increase of urban agglomeration degree.In the later stage of urban agglomeration,the regional disparity increases further with the degree of urban agglomeration.In the process of urban agglomeration development,the regional disparity enlarges gradually with urban agglomeration until it reaches a certain critical point.The regional disparity tends to narrow with urban agglomeration,and the empirical test is carried out.The conclusions are helpful to deeply understand the importance of urban agglomeration development to regional coordinated development,and for our country.Policy formulation to promote the construction and development of urban agglomerations provides a reference basis.(3)This paper summarizes and analyses the characteristics of the urban structure system in Northeast China,which is characterized by urban specialization,the concentration of machinery manufacturing industry in central cities,the concentration of raw material industry in peripheral cities,and the transition to urban diversification,the level of urban specialization and Northeast China.There is an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between urban output.The diversified development of northeastern cities is conducive to urban economic growth.The empirical test shows that the conclusions can provide experience and reference for policy-making of promoting regional coordinated development and economic revitalization in Northeast China. |
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