Research On The Promotion Of Comprehensive Grain Production Capacity In The Main Grain Producing Areas Of Commodity Grain Heilongjiang Province

The grain problem is the primary problem that China must face in the sustainable economic development.China should not only improve the production capacity of grain to ensure effective supply,but also need to ensure the quality and safety of grain.Since 2004,the total amount of grain in our country has increased year by year.By 2015,a "eleven-year consecutive increase" has been achieved,and the total grain amount reached 1242.87 billion jin.However,according to the prediction in book "Research on the Agricultural Modernization of Chinese Characteristics" published in 2015 by the development research center of the State Council,by 2020,the domestic population will be 1.43 billion,the average consumption will be 409 kg?414 kg,and the total demand will reach 584,870,000 to 592,020,000 tons.Meanwhile,according to the existing grain production capacity in China,the supply inadequacy of domestic grain(excluding soybean)will be around 40,000,000 tons?50,000,000 million tons,and there's a severe inadequacy in grain supply.At the same time,behind the sustained increase in grain production in China,there's a fragile balance,a coercive balance and a tension balance of grain supply.Therefore,to compensate the grain gap in the"13th Five-Year Plan" period,we should not only adjust the supply and demand structure through the structural reform of grain supply side,but also stabilize and further enhance the grain output capacity by improving the comprehensive grain production capacity.Heilongjiang province is the first major grain producing area of China's commodity grain.The comprehensive grain production capacity promotion of the two major commodity grain producing areas,Songnen Plain and Sanjiang Plain is worthy of special concern.Especially under the current agricultural development environment in which the state promotes the structural reform of agricultural supply side,it has become a problem urgently to be solved in the present grain production for Heilongjiang province to adopt the green development concept as the guidance,to use commodity grain production areas as the implementation main body,to rely on various measures to improve the comprehensive production capacity of grain,to promote the net output of commodity grain,to support the tight balance of grain supply and demand in China and to maintain national food safety.Therefore,it is particularly important to explore the ways to improve the comprehensive grain production capacity of the main commodity grain producing areas in Heilongjiang province.First of all,starting from the theory of agricultural zone,the theory of agricultural regional specialization and the theory of space planning,by analyzing the concept of main grain producing areas and main commodity grain producing areas,this paper divides and defines the main grain producing areas in Heilongjiang province,and makes a comprehensive summary and analysis of the reality.Then,starting from the input-output theory,the public goods theory and the sustainable development theory,based on the analysis of the concept of comprehensive grain production capacity,this paper puts forward that natural output capacity,factor input capability,technological support ability,policy support ability,organization and management capacity and risk resistance can be considered as factors of grain comprehensive production capacity.Therefore,from the perspective of the composing factors of comprehensive grain production capacity,the current comprehensive grain production capacity is summed up and summarized.The study found that the overall grain production capacity of the main commodity grain producing areas in Heilongjiang province is at a high level.But in order to fulfill the"13th Five-Year Plan" objectives and under the context of supply-side structural reform,we still need to break through the bottleneck to get further improved.Secondly,with the help of evolutionary game theory,this paper demonstrates the necessity and feasibility of promoting the comprehensive grain production capacity in the main commodity grain producing areas of Heilongjiang province from the perspective of theoretical analysis.At the same time,this paper draws on the typical experiences of improving the comprehensive grain production capacity.Based on the current situation of grain comprehensive production capacity,theoretical analysis and experiences,this paper selects a path to improve grain comprehensive production capacity suitable for main commodity grain producing areas in Heilongjiang province.The study found that according to the objective and principle of path selection,the selected path for the promotion of comprehensive grain production capacity in the main commodity grain producing areas of Heilongjiang province can be divided into endogenetic path,exogenetic path and multiple correlated path.Thirdly,this paper uses system dynamics to simulate the selected path effect of grain comprehensive production capacity.In order to ensure the continuous promotion of comprehensive grain production capacity,the corresponding safeguard measures are put forward in this paper.The study found that the selected path to improve the comprehensive grain production capacity can increase grain production,increase farmers' income,improve grain production efficiency and enable agricultural sustainable development in main commodity grain producing areas in the future implementation process.At the same time,this paper believes that the path can provide guarantee from such aspects as basic construction,supervision,supporting system,human resources and so on.