A Study Of Moderate Range Of China's Economic Growth Rate At Present Stage

In recent years,with the obvious step-by-step decline of China's economic growth rate,the moderate range of China's economic growth rate has attracted more and more attention and discussion from academia and government management departments.However,the academic circles have been disputing about the moderate range of China's economic growth rate at this stage,and lack of a unified analysis framework.In particular,the research on the existence,determinants,determination criteria and calculation methods of the moderate range of economic growth rate needs to be improved and expanded.This paper studies and answers three questions: first,the existence of a moderate range of economic growth rate.This paper discusses the existence of the moderate range of economic growth from the aspects of the stage,fluctuation,regularity and the possibility and necessity of economic growth.Based on the experience of some developed countries in setting the target of economic growth rate,it shows that the premise of macro-control policies is the existence of the moderate range of economic growth rate.Second,the determinants and criteria of the moderate range of economic growth rate.Starting from the possibility and demand of economic growth and the balance of total supply and demand,this paper discusses the determinants of the moderate range of economic growth rate,and based on the analysis and judgment of the present stage of economic growth in China,puts forward the determination criteria of the moderate range of economic growth.Third,the calculation method of the moderate range of economic growth rate and the specific calculation of the moderate range of economic growth rate in China at this stage.According to the standard of determining the moderate range of economic growth rate,this paper constructs a theoretical model of calculating the moderate range of economic growth rate from three ideas: giving full play to the potential of economic growth,maintaining the general balance of supply and demand,and maintaining the moderate inflation.Taking the employment rate,the potential output,the potential output growth rate,and the moderate range of inflation rate as the maindeterminants,it calculates the present stage of China's economic growth rate.When using the production function method to measure the potential output level of our country,the paper pays attention to distinguish the actual utilization rate and potential utilization rate of the production factors,and more accurately measures the potential output level of our country,and on this basis,calculates the appropriate range of economic growth based on the potential of economic growth.According to the estimation results,the actual economic growth rate of China from 2016 to 2018 is within the moderate range of economic growth determined by economic growth potential.This paper holds that the economic growth rate in these three years can promote the utilization level of production factors in economic activities to approach the full utilization level,make more effective use of economic growth potential,and ensure that economic output will not exceed the maximum output level that can be borne by economic growth potential in the short term.Based on the analysis framework of demand-led economic growth,this paper discusses how the adjustment of supply capacity accommodate to the change and guidance of demand when demand-led economic growth,and on this basis,estimates that the maximum value of China's economic growth rate at this stage determined by the balanced growth path of supply and demand is 8.2%.After comparing the data of China's real economic growth rate in recent years,this paper considers that this estimate is more in line with the reality of China's economic growth.The paper uses the generalized moment estimation method to test the empirical results and finds that the output price Phillips curve,which reflects the relationship between the gap of output growth rate and inflation rate,is valid in the process of China's economic development.According to the corresponding change relationship between the gap of output growth rate and inflation rate,after selecting the appropriate inflation range,the appropriate economic growth range based on inflation pressure is estimated.According to the estimation results,the paper considers that the economic growth rate of China since 2012 meets the requirements of maintaining moderate inflation in most years.Considering the results of the above three aspects,this paper holds that since 2012,thepotential of economic growth determines the lower limit of the moderate range of China's economic growth rate,while the moderate inflation determines the upper limit of the moderate range of China's economic growth rate.Specifically,in 2017 and 2018,China's economic growth moderate range is [5.8%,7.5%] and [6.0%,7.4%],respectively.The paper thinks that the economic growth rate in this range is not only conducive to the development of economic growth potential,but also can meet the constraints of demand growth possibility,and will not bring high inflation.