The Determinants Of Sustainable Economic Growth In China At This Stage

By measuring the growth of stock capital,the growth of labor force,the change of employment structure and the rate of technological progress on China's economic growth in the process of China's economic growth,this paper reveals the effect of the rate of technological progress on output growth after the deduction of the impact of the employment structure in the process of economic growth of China in the course of1991-2016 years.The contributions are 2.23% and 22.58% respectively.In terms of capital factors,we first use the perpetual inventory method to estimate the actual stock capital value of China for 1991-2016 years,and analyze the growth state of the stock capital.Then,according to the calculation formula of the stock capital,it is understood that the growth rate of the stock capital depends mainly on the savings rate and the speed of economic growth.The high growth rate of the stock capital will follow.The decrease of saving rate is returning to the speed of economic growth.Finally,it is judged that the lower limit of the growth rate of the sustainable stock capital in the process of China's economic growth is the rate of economic growth at the same year,the upper limit is 9.5%.In terms of labor factors,first through analysis,we know that the growth rate of the working age population is negative,the growth of the total number of employment is tending to zero.Then from the Pareto improvement angle of personal pursuit of welfare maximization,the internal driving force of the change of employment structure is analyzed by the continuous shift of labor force,and the employment structure influence index is constructed to calculate the employment.The growth of economic growth in 1991-2016 years was 1.86%.Finally,the range of China's current stage was defined from 2017 to 2026,and the change of employment structure at the present stage of China was predicted to be1.95% to economic growth.In the aspect of total factor productivity,we first analyze the acceleration effect of total factor productivity(TFP)to promote economic growth,and then calculate capital by building solo model,the size of labor's effect on economic growth,and then get the growth state of total factor productivity,and then get the city by building the measurement model of the determinants of the technological step rate.Field factors and technology introduction are the main factorsof technological progress,while human capital,research and test funds are not sensitive to the promotion of technological progress.But by comparing the technical progress,human capital and research and test funds in different provinces and cities of China,the human capital and research test funds have been explained from the side to the technical progress.Finally,on the basis of analyzing the trend of determining the determinants of technological progress,we can see that the sustainable growth rate of technological progress at this stage is 0.93%.On the premise of judging the lower limit of the growth rate of the stock capital at the present stage,the influence of the employment structure and the rate of technological progress,it is predicted that the economic growth rate of China's sustainability is between 5% and 6.9% at the present stage,and points out that the economic growth rate of the surplus labor force after the transfer of rural surplus labor in China is in the range.Slow down to 1.6% to 4.8%.