Cascading Effects Of Risk Dedicated To Collaborative Networked Organizations

Over the past few years,the rapid development of information and communications technology has continued to expand the range and forms of information creation and use by humankind.The increasing mobility and flexibility of enterprises have led to the creation of collaborative networks.A collaborative network is a linked system composed of a number of business entities with different geographical locations,operating environments,and corporate cultures.The partners collaborate to better achieve common or compatible objectives and gain differentiated market competition by sharing and complementing their core competencies and resources.However,with the increasing complexity of collaborative environments and the iterative evolution of interaction,partners have to face the systemic risks caused by their strong dependencies while sharing the benefits.The characteristic of systemic risks is that the occurrence of the risk may trigger cascading effects,causing the risk to spread and propagate continuously in time and space,which may lead to serious loss to the whole collaborative network.Accordingly,accurate and effective management of risk cascading effects is critical to collaborative networks.The identification of potential risk elements and the analysis of hidden risk chain are the key to supporting risk management decision-making.While how to identify and analyze risks depends on how to recognize and understand risks.Risk is a complex concept,including causality.The basis of obtaining crucial risk information is to describe and characterize risk in multiple dimensions,then to explore risk causation and propagation mechanism.Nevertheless,existing research in the field of risk has fallen short on the following:i.the formal description of the multidimensional concept of risk;ii.rarely involving the characterization and conceptualization of cascading effect;iii.lack of approach to identify the multidimensional risk elements and to analyze the potential risk chains.As a result,the dissertation focuses on the subject of cascading effects of risk dedicated to collaborative networks considering the above research shortcomings.The specific studies are as follows:i.A knowledge representation model of risk causal chain is constructed based on the metamodel of Danger/Risk/Consequence chain.The concept of five core elements of risk causal chain model are defined and the conceptual distinction rules between the elements are summarized based on literature review.Besides,the risk causal process is analyzed according to the essential concepts of those risk-related elements.After that,the risk causation mechanism is revealed by defining the causal relationships among the five core elements.From the perspective of dynamic collaborative environments,three attributes of the model elements are defined,and the causal connection patterns of model elements with different attributes are analyzed.Furthermore,the above risk causal chain modeling process is summarized as formalized rules in order to increase the normality of risk conceptualization.ii.For the sake of the characteristics understanding of cascading effects,the logical relations between systemic risk,risk propagation and cascading effects are analyzed.After that,the cascading effect model is constructed based on the risk causal chain model,and three categories of cascading relationships are defined to describe the risk propagation mechanism.Besides,the rules of model construction are formalized according to the modeling process of cascading effect.Moreover,the matrix of propagation patterns of cascading effects considering different interrelationships is summarized to represent the occurrence possibility of cascading effects between different types of risk causal chain.iii.A methodology for the identification and analysis of supply chain cascading effects is proposed,which aims to identify risk-related elements and analyze hidden risk chains.The methodology consists of three main steps and objectives:supply chain risk data analysis and processing,risk identification and risk chain analysis,and collaborative risk prevention strategies.In addition,a supply chain risk knowledge base is constructed based on a comprehensive literature review,which is used to to provide a formalized and systematic reference for the three steps and objectives.Meanwhile,the implementation of those steps could provide feedback on the risk knowledge base and contribute to its update.iv.Construction material supply chain of a large construction enterprise group in China is selected as the case study object.The dissertation conducts a case study on the collaborative contexts of construction material supply chain,which aims to verify the rationality of the constructed risk knowledge model as well as the proposed methodology.Firstly,the main business issues of collaborative contexts are analyzed through comprehending the basic characteristics and management situation of construction material supply chain.Secondly,those main business issues are selected for further risk identification and analysis.Thirdly,the proposed methodology is adopted to identify and analyze risk causal chains as well as risk propagation chains.Finally,according to the results,the case study further discusses the corresponding risk response strategies.The main driving source of risk evolution and propagation is the systematic and interconnection nature of risks in complex networks.Regarding collaborative networks,partners are both the subjects in risk triggering and propagation and the receptors exposed to the evolution of risks.Hence,the risk perception,understanding and response patterns of collaborative network partners would directly influence the evolutionary trajectory of risks,the way risk is identified and analyzed,thus the effectiveness of risk management.This dissertation provides an insights into cascading effects of risk to contribute to the understanding and formal description of complex risk concepts and cascading effects.From a risk network perspective,the reseach work provides decision support information for accurate potential risk identification and localization in complex collaborative networks.From an organization network perspective,it leads partners to recognize the importance of joint participation and the integration of crucial risk information in risk management of collaborative network.Moreover,it also provides a theoretical guideline for collaborative risk prevention and diversified response strategy-making among partners.