Supply Chain Risk Identification And Early Warning Research

With the economic era of the supply creation demand came, the market began to appearing competitive, enterprise management shifted from increase the number of products to improve product’s quality, then the concept to an higher level, with economic globalization, the enterprise zone into the new environment, the business shifted from the vertical integration to horizontal integration, and global integration. Entrepreneurs were beginning to explore the integration resources to enhance its competitiveness for meet customers’ needs. Then supply chain management evolved. With the acceleration of economic globalization, through supply chain management has become a corporate resource for international competitive. The leading supply chain management expert of United States Martin· Christopher said:"In the21st century, competition is no longer between enterprises and the enterprises, but the supply chain and supply chain." According to statistics, the supply chain management can decrease the total cost of10%and improve on-time delivery rate of15%.However, in the supply chain management, there are many uncertainties and risks, which have the fully impact of sustainable development of the supply chain. How to identify, assess and control the of the risk is the manager’s core concerns. The current supply chain management is still short of the systematic research. Base of the supply chain theory, combine with social network analysis, data mining, this article has a system study in supply chain risk warning. The study includes the following:(1) Grounded on the relationship of supply chain environment, study the generated antecedents and formation process of supply chain risk, discuss the environmental and inter-organizational relationship between supply chain risks. Resources collocation within the supply chain companies etc for example, analyses the risk within the supply chain. From the side of moral hazard, a crisis of confidence, information dissemination, capacity venture and so on, open out the risk of revealing the formation mechanism of the supply chain.(2) Based on the preceding analysis, from the perspective of network properties of supply chain’s risk factors angle, identify the key supply chain risk factors and risk of the formation pathway. According to the data survey and data simulation, use social network analysis the key risks of supply chain risk factors.(3) Select Qingdao construction co.ltd as the objective of this study,using Kohonen for reference, assort indicator of the risk factors. According to the classification results distinguishing the supply chain risk categories. And then, using CART algorithm for establishing early warning model of supply chain risk, supply chain risk categories derived threshold. So as to forecast the supply chain risk, supply chain risk categories to determine a theoretical basis and operational processes.(4) Use data mining association rules in the supply chain risk analysis the relationship between factors, the association obtained the role of risk factors, the risks associated with the supply chain forecasting, according to risk category threshold, the associated risk analysis.