Decision Of Agricultural Products Supply Chain Under Uncertain Demand

For a long time,there has been a sharp contradiction between “small farmers and large markets” in China’s agricultural product supply chain,which has affected agricultural efficiency and farmers’ income seriously.In addition,under the traditional mode of the supply chain,middlemen make more profits,leading to the phenomena of“cheap vegetables hurt farmers” and “expensive vegetables hurt people”.Agricultural production tends to be market-oriented,industrialized and informationized,which promotes the supply chain reconstruction and circulation channels reform of agricultural products.Agricultural product supply chain tends to be flat and multi-channel.The agricultural product supply chain have numerous farmers’ producers and household consumers as its two ends,and have the characteristics of massive participants,cross-regions,multi-links,etc.The supply chain system is easily affected by the internal and external uncertainties and evolves into supply chain risks.Due to the uncertainty of market demand,the risk of agricultural supply chain is concentrated on price fluctuation caused by supply and demand disturbance,which leads to the revenue of the supply chain system not reaching the expected target.The supply-demand relationship under uncertain demand includes supply-demand balance and supply-demand deviation,and its decision making research is significance to supply chain management and practice.At the same time,the attitude of decision makers to risks in the agricultural supply chain affects their decisions.While considering the maximization of benefits,they have to consider the risk tolerance,which will eventually affect the system’s revenue.Based on the economic management theories such as game theory,contract theory,marketing channels and so on,this paper describes the risk indicators in supply chain with the risk tools such as conditional risk value(CVaR),mean variance and utility function.This paper tekes the “Farming Supermarket docking” supply chain and the dual-channel supply chain of agricultural products as the research object respectively,focuses on the analysis of the problems from the perspective of cooperatives or agricultural product bases serving as suppliers under the industrialization mode,and discusses the decision-makingof agricultural product supply chain under the uncertainty of demand,the main research contents include the following aspects:Firstly,on the basis of combing the relevant concepts,theories and characteristics of agricultural product supply chain,this paper studies the common operation modes of the agricultural product supply chain,analyzes the “Farming Supermarket docking” and the double-channel supply chain mode emphatically,and further points out the important role of the cooperatives.It summarizes the factors,characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural product supply chain risk,analyzes the mechanism and performance of demand uncertainty in agricultural product supply chain.It further summarizes the routine treatment and monitoring of agricultural product supply chain risk.The risk management strategy of agricultural product supply chain is further elaborated,which lays a foundation for the following analysis.Secondly,under the uncertain demand,considering the “Farming Supermarket docking” supply chain,which is composed of a risk-neutral cooperative and a risk-averse supermarket,and the two sides of the supply chain adopt the order agricultural mode of“deposit+deferred payment”.This paper uses CVaR model to consider the risk aversion behavior of supermarkets,discusses the optimal ordering decision of supply chain and the pricing problem of cooperatives,so as to achieve the purpose of effective decision-making under the market with uncertain demand.Thirdly,under the uncertain demand,taking the dual-channel supply chain of agricultural products as the research object,this paper studies the two situations in which the suppliers and the retailers play a leading role respectively,describes their risk attitudes by means of mean-variance method,and considers the supply-demand relationship under the mode of integration and independent decision-making respectively.By analyzing six different situations and discussing the optimal demand quantity and optimal price of supply chain,the effective risk decision-making of supply chain is made to ensure the efficient operation,sensibility and flexibility of agricultural supply chain.Then,under the uncertain demand,considering the characteristics of the loss of fresh agricultural products in the circulation process,the dual-channel model of fresh agricultural products is constructed;the change of the optimal quantity and price of thesupply chain is analyzed.The revenue-sharing contract is preliminarily designed to realize the coordination of double-channel supply chain of fresh agricultural products and to provide decision-making basis for decision-makers.Finally,taking China’s nut supply chain as a research case,its present situation and risks of the supply chain are analyzed.From the two aspects of “Farming Supermarket docking” and dual-channel supply chain,the paper focuses on how to apply the research results of this paper to the nut industry,and provides guidance suggestions for the development of the nut industry.