A Study On Sustainable Development Of Financial Inclusion From The Perspective Of External Circumstance

In recent years,with the rapid development of China's economy,the financial system has expanded rapidly.However,the imbalance and inadequacy of financial development still exist,and the permeability of financial services to small and micro enterprises,farmers and other vulnerable groups needs to be further improved.In order to solve the imbalance of financial development and enhance the inclusiveness of financial services,the state has put forward a series of policies and measures to promote and develop financial inclusion.In 2013,the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee mentioned the development of financial inclusion.In 2015,the state issued a five-year inclusive financial development plan,which clarified the guiding ideology and basic principles of i nclusive finance,and made vulnerable groups as key service objects.At the 2016 Hangzhou Summit,the high-level principle of digitalization of financial inclusion was formulated,emphasizing the promotion of inclusive growth of financial inclusion.The Ru ral Revitalization Plan proposed by the central government in 2018 mentions vigorously developing financial inclusion.Under the background of the development of financial inclusion in China,what impact does the external circumstance,such as monetary policy,economic basis and protection of financial consumers' rights and interests,have on the sustainable development of financial inclusion,and how to ensure the sustainable development of financial inclusion,are all issues that need to be considered to promote the sustainable development of financial inclusion.Therefore,this paper studies the sustainable development of financial inclusion from the perspective of external circumstance.Through the analysis of the relevant theories of inclusive financial sustainable development,this paper establishes the theoretical basis of this study.It also expounds the mechanism of external environmental impact on the sustainable development of financial inclusion from three aspects: logical starting point,promotin g factors and cooperative mechanism.From the perspective of win-win interests,this paper analyses the logical starting point of the sustainable development of financial inclusion to ensure a virtuous circle of inclusive funds.From three external factors : monetary policy support,economic base coordination and financial guarantee,this paper explores the promotion factors of inclusive financial sustainable development.With the help of the concept of biological system,the sustainable development of financial inclusion is divided into three subsystems: inclusive,sustainable development and external circumstance.The functions of these three subsystems and their synergistic effects are analyzed respectively.On the basis of the above,the assumption of bounded rationality and information asymmetry is made,and a three-party evolutionary game model composed of regulatory authorities,financial institutions and inclusive objects is constructed.By constructing the payment matrix and replicator dynamics of the three-party evolutionary game model,the equilibrium point of the evolutionary game model is found.The result of the game shows that under the ideal circumstance,there exists a game equilibrium state of supervision of financial departments,service prov ided by financial institutions and credit of inclusive objects,which reflects the sustainability of inclusive financial development.Further analysis shows that the government's subsidies and preferential policies to financial institutions can help improv e the enthusiasm of financial institutions to provide inclusive financial services and products,and increase the possibility of balancing the regulatory authorities,financial institutions and inclusive targets.In addition,increasing subsidies will help improve the efficiency of inclusive financial services provided by financial institutions.In the process of game,the inclusive object always weighs the profit and cost of its violation.The punishment of the supervisory department helps to standardize t he behavior of the inclusive object.The speed of the inclusive object's standardization of its behavior has a positive relationship with the punishment intensity.There is a gap between the realistic circumstance and the ideal circumstance,which affects the sustainability of financial inclusion.This paper divides the realistic circumstance of financial inclusion into two levels: circumstance factors and risks,and carries out the analysis of external environmental impact on the sustainable development of financial inclusion.Starting from the external circumstance factors affecting the development of financial inclusion,this paper studies the impact of monetary policy,economic basis and the protection of financial consumers' rights and interests on the sustainable development of financial inclusion.Empirical analysis shows that monetary policy has a positive short-term impact on financial inclusion factors,but gradually disappears with the passage of time.Taking GDP as the proxy variable of economic basis,this paper analyses the impact of economic basis on inclusive financial development.The results show that economic basis has short-term negative impact on financial inclusion factors,indicating the importance of matching and interaction between economy and financial inclusion.If the economy is too much ahead of inclusive finance,backward financial inclusion will hinder economic development;conversely,if financial inclusion is too much ahead of the economy,it will reduce the efficiency of financial inclusion.The matching and effective interaction between financial inclusion and economy will promote the coordinated development of economy and inclusive finance.A good financial ecological environment is conducive to the smooth operation of financial inclusion.From the perspective of micro-risk,this paper analyses the impact of personal endowment of financial inclusion objects on the sustainable development of financial inclusion.Using the microcosmic data of China Comprehensive Social Survey(CG SS)in 2015,this paper quantitatively analyses the relationship between the personal economic status,financial literacy and risk awareness of the inclusive target with the help of Logistic model.The empirical results show that personal income and financ ial literacy are negatively correlated with risk awareness,which indicates that the stratification of inclusive financial consumers is obvious in China.Further,from the perspective of macro-risk,this paper explores the relationship between systemic ris k of banking industry and sustainable development of financial inclusion.Based on the data of 15 listed banks,using AR(1)-GJR-GARCH(1,1)-SKT model and compressed Vine-Copula with exogenous variables,this paper makes a comparative analysis of the impact of financial inclusion on the systemic risk of banking industry.The results show that the impact of financial inclusion on the systemic risk of banking industry is related to the external circumstance of financial inclusion.When the external circumstance of financial inclusion is good,the development of financial inclusion will further reduce systemic financial risks;when the external circumstance of financial inclusion is poor,financial inclusion will increase systemic financial risks.Based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis,as well as the comparative analysis of the external circumstance and development mode of financial inclusion in the United States,India and Bangladesh,and according to the actual characteristics of the external circumstance of financial inclusion development in China,this paper puts forward three strategies to promote the sustainable development of financial inclusion.First,the sustainable development of financial inclusion should choose the appropriate development mode according to the external circumstance,and promote digital financial inclusion by means of financial science and technology.Second,we should optimize the external environment of financial inclusion,enhance the pertinence of monetary policy to financial inclusion,pay attention to the positive interaction between financial inclusion and economic development,and simultaneously promote the protection of financial consumers' rights and interests and the construction of inclusive financial credit reporting system.Third,we should strengthen the risk prevention of financial inclusion and build a sound financial ecology for the development of financial inclusion.