| Against the background of China’s foreign trade growth rate continuing to slow down,cross-border e-commerce,as a new mode of international trade development,is gradually becoming a new driving force for the growth of foreign trade and economic development under the new normal.Among them,as the most important way for the government to guide and regulate the development of cross-border e-commerce,the policy means are faced with many problems in the context of the new business model of cross-border e-commerce,such as fragmentation of policies,incomplete systems,and duplication of regulation and omission,which cannot effectively promote the development of cross-border e-commerce.The reason behind this is that cross-border e-commerce as a new business,its business model is constantly changing,creating new features and new trends,it also producing a series of problems such as asymmetric information,uneven quality of products and many others,the policy system need to put forward a new regulatory requirements;Cross-border e-commerce involves more than 10 departments,such as customs,commerce,taxation,finance,and postal services.Poor communication and coordination mechanisms and blurred functional boundaries between departments have led to regulatory duplication and omission in the existing cross-border e-commerce policy system.Therefore,under the dual pressure of the regulatory needs and regulatory problems faced by cross-border e-commerce policy,we systematically study some key issues such as repeated supervision,regulatory conflict and insignificant effect of cross-border e-commerce policy,analyze the effect of cross-border e-commerce policy system,and explore effective policy "combination fist" to promote thedevelopment of cross-border e-commerce.Realizing the quantitative analysis of cross-border e-commerce policy from policy choice,policy implementation,and international trade shock response is an effective way to ensure that the policy system is scientific and reasonable and solves the problem of policy inefficiency and inadaptation.In view of this,this thesis analyzes the evolution characteristics of cross-border e-commerce policy system,quantifies the content of cross-border e-commerce policy,evaluates the effectiveness of policy implementation,and provides policy recommendations for government departments to guide and adjust the development of cross-border e-commerce industry.Specifically,this article mainly includes the following research content:First of all,this thesis introduces the research background,value and significance,defines the relevant core concepts and reviews the current situation of the research on cross-border e-commerce policy system,cross-border e-commerce policy effect evaluation and policy content quantification,expounds the research content,framework and method,and explains the characteristics and innovations of the research.Secondly,this thesis sorts the theoretical basis of the study text of cross-border e-commerce policy out first,including the theory of government intervention and policy network,and then explores theoretical basis on the economic effect of cross-border e-commerce policy,including the trade intermediary function of cross-border e-commerce and the dynamic random general equilibrium model,and finally summarizes the economic effects of policy from the cross-border e-commerce,cross-border e-commerce tax,and cross-border e-commerce consumption preferences.Thirdly,this thesis looks into the quantitative analysis of the evolution characteristics and shortcomings of China’s cross-border e-commerce policy system.This part uses the social network analysis method to analyze the evolution characteristics of subject and theme of cross-border e-commerce policy,and then examines the existing regulatory issues of the policy system through the network association diagram of the policy subject and theme.The empirical analysis finds that there are a series of regulatory problems such as multi-head supervision,imbalance of subject coordination,thematic dispersion,imbalance of service content and policy structure of measures,and overlapping supervision.Next,this thesis studies the impact of the policy mix on the scale effect of the cross-border e-commerce industry.This part first adopts the text analysis method,constructs the three-dimensional analysis framework of cross-border e-commerce policy portfolio from the perspective of policy tools,policy objectives,and policy intensity,and then measures the combination of characteristics of cross-border e-commerce policy from the three aspects of comprehensiveness,consistency,and equilibrium,and using linear regression analysis method to measure the effect of policy combination on the scale effect of cross-border e-commerce industry,further clarify the effect of different types of cross-border e-commerce policy combination.The results of cross-border e-commerce policy combination features are significantly different;for example,the mixed characteristics of environmental-based policy tools are higher,but the effect is not ideal.The combination of supply-based and demand-based policy tools is low,but it can play a significant role in promoting the scale effect of cross-border e-commerce industry.In addition,this thesis discusses the macroeconomic effects of cross-border e-commerce policy portfolios: a two-country DSGE model.Firstly,on the basis of the framework of policy portfolio analysis constructed in the previous sector,combined with the characteristics of cross-border e-commerce transactions,the DSGE model of the two countries with different types of mixed shock of cross-border e-commerce policy is constructed,simulates the macroeconomic effects of the mixed shock of policy tools,and compares the differences in their effects under different policy objectives and policy strengths.The study finds that the mixed shock of supply-based policy tool of cross-border e-commerce can not only improve domestic output,but also cause fewer welfare losses to domestic and foreign residents,and the impact on the current account is not large,it is an optimal policy tool.While the demand shock of cross-border e-commerce can improve domestic and foreign output and foreign consumption,improve the current domestic account,however the loss to the welfare of domestic residents is greater.Also,it is found that the economic effects of the shock of the portfolio of policy tools will show different trends with fluctuations in policy strength,policy objectives,and policy expiration periodIn conclusion,comparing with existing literature,the research mentioned above mainly has the following innovations:(1)Innovation in research content.The effect of cross-bordere-commerce policy is analyzed on multiple aspects and perspectives,which effectively enriches the research content of social and economic policy statistics.(2)Innovation from a research perspective.From the perspective of the regulatory problems and regulatory needs faced by the development of cross-border e-commerce,the method of quantitative analysis of the whole process of cross-border e-commerce policy system is proposed,and the research perspective has certain innovation.(3)Research ideas on innovation.It is an innovative way to expand public policy research to introduce the social network analysis method and policy network theory into the research of cross-border e-commerce policy system and put forward the statistical analysis of the existing regulatory problems of cross-border e-commerce policy system.(4)Innovation in theoretical models.According to the characteristics of cross-border e-commerce,a DSGE model framework of the two countries with different types of mixed shock of cross-border e-commerce policy is constructed.Especially when examining the channels of commodity circulation of cross-border e-commerce,the department of cross-border e-commerce export trade intermediary is introduced into the model,which more realistically depicts the real economic characteristics.The research of this paper has reached the expected goal,but there are some shortcomings as well.(1)the research object is limited to China’s cross-border e-commerce policy system,and the mature experience from the international is not discussed.(2)Only analyzed the development characteristics of some core subject and theme of cross-border e-commerce policy.The current existing policy subjects are not studied by using a comprehensive approach.(3)Only researched the quantitative analysis of China’s cross-border e-commerce policy documents between 2008 and 2018;therefore,the research content is limited.(4)The causes of cross-border e-commerce regulatory problems come from a variety of channels.This paper only studied the existing problems between the regulatory authorities and did not analyze from the demand for cross-border e-commerce development. |
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