Innovation Model, Cycle And "R&D Productivity Paradox"

According to endogenous growth theory,endogenous technological progress is the determinant of sustained economic growth,and R & D activity is an important way to improve productivity.In the past decade,the total scale of R & D investment in China has continued to expand,but the growth rate of productivity has not significantly improved.This phenomenon of the coexistence of the growth of R & D investment scale and the sluggish growth rate of productivity is contrary to the prediction of the scale effect of knowledge capital by traditional knowledge growth model.If this situation cannot be improved for a long time,R & D investment,as a factor cost,will not provide endogenous power for economic growth,but will cause resource mismatch due to the characteristics of high cost,high risk and low income.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to explore the formation mechanism of "R & D productivity paradox" for finding the potential path of productivity growth.In recent years,the academic community has conducted a lot of research on the influencing factors of the contribution rate of technological progress,but due to the differences in measurement methods and indicators,the previous research has not formed a more consistent view on the absolute level of the contribution rate of technology and the key impact mechanism.Most studies focus on TFP,which represents the broad sense of technological progress,but few studies focus on the endogenous dynamic role of narrow sense of technological progress in the medium and long term in economic growth.More importantly,the TFP calculated by the production function method is biased to measure the contribution rate of technological progress.For example,Solow residual method is widely used in academia,which implies that economic resources are fully utilized in all production decision-making elements,so TFP can represent the contribution rate of technological progress to output growth.However,this method ignores the possible efficiency loss of different production decision elements,that is,the output level of different production units may be different from the potential optimal output,so the total factor productivity estimated by the parameter method based on the production function can't accurately reflect the contribution rate of technology to the output growth.To sum up,due to the lack of reliable index basis for the ability of transforming R & D investment into productivity from the perspective of total factor productivity,this paper uses the improved method to study this problem.In the third chapter,the actual R & D input-output level is initially evaluated from the overall level,that is,the performance of China's overall R & D input-output is preliminarily analyzed from the breakdown indicators of R & D input and output level.Preliminary judging from the analysis results,the actual level of R & D investment and output in China is overestimated to some extent: on the one hand,there is still some room for improvement in the actual scale of R & D activities in China,and more importantly,the current statistical level of R & D investment is overestimated to some extent.On the other hand,the actual performance level of China's R & D activities is also overestimated to a large extent.From the analysis of various relevant indicators,China's R & D activities show a significant "light weight" feature.Although a large number of scholars generally affirmed the considerable scale growth trend of relevant indicators of R & D activities,the actual results and values of R & D activities are obviously related to their statistical water the trend of flat quantity expansion is uncoordinated.Chapter four further proves the existence of "R & D productivity paradox" indirectly from the perspective of profitability.Based on the method of stochastic frontier production function and improved index,the relative input-output efficiency of 27 manufacturing industries is calculated.The results show that the cycle term representing the efficiency frontier of the whole manufacturing industry shows a downward trend.At the same time,from the perspective of industry heterogeneity,there is a significant "R & D efficiency paradox" in manufacturing industry,which is reflected in two aspects: first,the input-output efficiency of industries with high R & D input is generally lower than that of the whole industry production frontier;second,the convergence speed of input-output efficiency from most industries to the efficiency frontier slows down.According to the research results of this chapter,it can be preliminarily judged that large-scale R & D investment is not significantly reflected in the profitability of various industries,especially high-tech industries.From this point of view,it can be indirectly inferred that R & D investment has neither significantly promoted cost saving nor economic benefit improvement.In this case,R & D investment must be contrary to productivity.Then,why has the effect of R&D investment expansion not been significantly transformed into the increase of productivity growth,nor reflected in the improvement of input-output efficiency? Generally speaking,the source of technological progress can be divided into two channels: endogenous and exogenous: endogenous technological progress mainly depends on the independent innovation ability and management ability of the enterprise,which is embodied in R & D performance;exogenous technological progress mainly comes from the macroeconomic environment,which is related to the high degree of economic cycle.Based on this,this paper studies the decision mechanism of contribution rate of technological progress from the perspectives of R & D performance and external cycle.The fifth chapter discusses the dynamic correlation mechanism between R & D resource allocation structure and innovation mode and productivity growth.Since major technological breakthroughs often require large-scale,long-term capital and human capital investment,some researches define low-cost,small-scale R & D activities as imitation innovation.The essence of this kind of innovation activity is to imitate and improve on the basis of existing technology,so it can be realized quickly in a short time with less capital and human capital investment The transformation from innovation results to monopoly profits.Compared with breakthrough innovation,the risk and monopoly profit of imitation innovation are smaller,but its contribution to technological progress is lower.When a large number of R & D resources are invested in imitative innovation activities in an industry,imitative innovation activities may form a "resource crowding effect" on breakthrough innovation activities to promote the technological progress of the industry,and may lower the average technological progress rate of the industry.The increase of imitative innovation activities means the improvement of market competition,which may constitute a competitive incentive for enterprises engaged in breakthrough innovation,and the relationship between market competition and breakthrough innovation activities is more complex.From this point of view,the impact of imitation innovation on the technological progress of the industry is uncertain.Grossman and Helpman(1991b)The model of product cycle and quality ladder demonstrates the mechanism of technological progress promoted by imitation innovation.On this basis,this paper further relaxes the hypothesis of market segmentation,discusses the mechanism of the contribution of imitation rate to technological progress in a unified market with breakthrough innovation and imitation innovation,and further investigates the empirical evidence of this mechanism.The results show that the proportion of imitation innovation has a threshold effect on the rate of technological progress.When the resource crowding effect of imitation innovation is higher than the competition incentive effect,the investment of imitation innovation is negatively related to the growth of productivity.Empirical evidence is more consistent with this theoretical mechanism.Statistical data shows that the increase of low-cost and small-scale imitative innovation subjects in manufacturing industry makes the Limited R & D resources be overcrowded.The resulting market competition intensifies and does not form a significant innovation incentive effect on breakthrough innovation subjects(large-scale innovation subjects),which is directly reflected in high efficiency and large-scale innovation The proportion of the main investment scale has shrunk significantly.The resource crowding effect of imitation innovation activities is more obvious than the competition incentive effect.A large number of R & D resources flow into the fields with low R & D efficiency,resulting in the transformation of R & D investment to productivity blocked.The sixth chapter studies the mechanism and degree of the international productivity common cycle to the productivity fluctuation of manufacturing industry from the perspective of international productivity cycle synergy.In terms of theoretical mechanism,this paper focuses on Jean Pascal Benassy(1995)Technology trade is further introduced into the interactive mechanism model of market equilibrium technology progress rate and social optimal technology progress rate(assuming that technology spillover is a low-cost technology purchase behavior),that is,assuming that enterprises can acquire technology through research and development activities,or exchange foreign technology through the use of some final products,then the profits of the two technology acquisition ways are bound to be balanced In the same way,we can then get a stable TFP,which is not only determined by the market structure of the enterprises in the economy(the market structure determines the monopoly profits of innovation activities),but also impacted by foreign technology fluctuations.In order to verify this mechanism,this paper uses the comparative TFP data of pwt9.0 countries based on the state space model to test the productivity cycle synergy between China's TFP and its major trading partners.From the empirical evidence,the fluctuation of productivity of all industries in China's manufacturing industry and the international common cycle show significant synergy,and this feature is especially obvious in the resource monopoly industry.Therefore,it can be preliminarily judged that compared with the role of market structure,the impact of external cycle on productivity is more obvious.Therefore,the "R & D productivity paradox" largely depends on the negative impact of international productivity downward cycle.It is found that the main cause of R & D productivity paradox is the excessive inflow of R & D resources into the field of imitative innovation and the decline of external cycle and the weakening of late development advantage.Due to the spillover characteristics of technology,the possibility of independent R & D with relatively high cost by the industrial manufacturers with high external technology spillover characteristics is low,which leads to a large number of final products used for technology transfer expenses in the early stage of innovation catch-up.With the narrowing of the technological gap with foreign countries,the space for improving the technological progress rate relying on the spillover technology transformation will decline.In addition,the imbalance of R & D resource allocation structure leads to the low performance of internal independent R & D,and the overall input-output efficiency of the industry will show a significant downward trend.The disadvantages of traditional industrial policies,R & D models and enterprise competition strategies for innovation incentives have been exposed,and gradually become a short board that seriously restricts China's innovation catching up,transformation and upgrading,and the promotion of global value chain division.The innovation of this paper lies in expanding the general theoretical mechanism of market structure determining innovation,introducing innovation mode and external common cycle factors into the basic framework,and exploring the leading cause of "R & D productivity paradox" in two development models closer to the typical characteristics of Chinese manufacturing innovation activities.The theoretical hypothesis of the interaction mechanism of endogenous technology progress and internal R & D activities,exogenous technology progress and external cyclical factors is demonstrated.It expands the thinking of relevant research in exploring ways to improve R & D performance.From the perspective of profitability and input-output efficiency,this paper indirectly studies the R & D performance of manufacturing industry,improves the efficiency accounting method and index data of R & D performance,and studies the R & D Input-output Performance from the perspective of relative productivity and profitability,further verifies the existence of the "R & D productivity paradox" in China's manufacturing industry,which provides a more feasible hypothesis for the relevant theoretical mechanism The basis of reliability.