Analysis Of The Correlation Effect Between China's Industrial Economic Cycle And Technological Progress

In 2016,China's total economic output exceeded the 70 trillion mark,surpassing Japan and becoming the second largest economy in the world after the United States.However,according to World Bank data,in 2014,China's energy consumption per unit of GDP was US$5.7/kg of oil equivalent.Under the same energy consumption,we created less than one-half of the value of Germany,only about 0.53 times that of Japan and 0.73 times that of the United States.At the same time,overcapacity and backward industrial structure have become the main factors hindering the further development of China's economy.Under this background,the government put forward the strategy of "innovation-driven development" and clearly stated that technological innovation must be placed at the core of the overall development of the country.Observing data from Western countries,some developed countries have a cyclical development in technological innovation.In the context,it is particularly important to.study whether China's technological innovations have similar fluctuation characteristics and their correlation with output.Based on the level of per capital and the government's classification of high-tech industries,this paper divides China's industrial sector into labor-intensive,capital-intensive and technology-intensive.This paper use three method including growth kernel algorithm,SFA and DEA to measure the growth rate of total factor productivity in China's industrial sector.And the BB method and spectral analysis were used to analyze the cyclical and associated effects of output and technological innovation,and the following conclusions were drawn:China's industrial sector output has a short period of 2-3 years and a medium period of 7-8 years.Its technological progress has a short period of 2-3 years and a medium period of 7-9 years,industrial output and technological progress.Both short-term and medium-cycle fluctuations are consistent.The output of labor-intensive industrial industries has a short period of 2-3 years and a medium period of 8-9 years,and the fluctuation range is relatively small;technological progress has a short period of 2-3 years and a medium period of 7-9 years,and The trend of "sudden rise and slow down" is obvious.The short-term fluctuations of the two are consistent,and the mid-cycle fluctuations of output are ahead of technological progress.Capital-intensive industry output has a short period of 2-3 years and a medium period of 8-9 years.Technological progress has a short period of 2 years and a medium period of 6-8 years.Both short-term and medium-cycle fluctuations are clearly consistent.Technology-intensive industry output has a short period of 2-3 years and a medium period of 7-8 years;technological progress has a short period of 2-3 years.The technological progress of the industry and the short-term fluctuations of output are consistent,the mid-cycle volatility is basically the same,and the technological progress is slightly ahead of output.Because China's industrial sector has cyclical fluctuations,so when formulating and implementing technological innovation policies,government should fully consider the characteristics of cyclical fluctuations of technological innovation at different stages anddifferent types of industrial sectors in order to improve the effectiveness of policies.The main innovations of this paper are mainly from the following two aspects:First of all,in terms of the selection of indicators for technological progress,this paper does not use the R&D investment or the number of patents used by most scholars,but measures the total factor productivity TFP.Because R&D investment only reflects the input situation and cannot reflect the results of technological progress,and the number of patents does not describe the information on production,TFP can comprehensively reflect the input and output,and the information coverage is comprehensive.Secondly,in the analysis of the cyclical fluctuation characteristics of output and technological progress,the internationally popular BB method is combined with the discriminative constraints proposed by domestic scholars in the time domain analysis to better adapt to the characteristics of China's economic operation.