Assessing the institutional value of Ontario's nutrient calculator: An empirical approach

The value of decision support systems in fostering better planning and management decisions has received mixed reviews. On the one hand, researchers claim that the use of a decision support system improves the decision-making process by increasing the overall effectiveness and efficiency. Decision support systems allow decision makers to more data, and expand information processing capabilities, which should utilize contribute to better decisions. On the other hand, a lack of empirical testing, reluctance to change management practices, and lack of confidence in decision support system output raises doubt about the value of this technology in providing better decisions. There have been relatively few studies that assess the actual implementation of decision support technology in the public sector. This research addresses this need by assessing the use of a decision support system in Ontario's nutrient management planning and livestock building permit application process.; Over the last 30 years, there has been considerable effort to reduce the amount of phosphorus entering surface water as a result of agricultural activities. Several voluntary and financial programs were implemented to change agricultural land use practices associated with livestock operations. More recently, municipalities and the Ontario government are implementing regulatory controls on the livestock industry. Livestock operators now require a nutrient management plan prior to being issued a building permit, and eventually all facilities generating and receiving nutrients will require a nutrient management plan. A decision support system, entitled NMAN, was developed to assist agencies review the adequacy of the nutrient management plans, to ensure there is sufficient storage capacity and land area on which to apply manure prior to issuing a building permit.; The value of the NMAN software is assessed through the use of two case studies and a sensitivity analysis. First, the Township of East Perth is the focus of a permit review comparing the efficiency and fairness of the decision-making process pre- and post-NMAN software. Second, two agricultural catchments near Kintore, Ontario, are used to simulate the total phosphorus concentration (mg/1) in surface water. A simulation of the total phosphorus concentrations under traditional nutrient application rates to the NMAN recommended application rates is compared to determine the potential long-term impacts on surface water quality. The sensitivity analysis of the NMAN software identifies the changes in output factors due to modifications of the input factors.; The research findings indicate that the decision-making process is more efficient for the review agencies since using the NMAN software and application process is fair. However, the ability to manipulate input factors and the lack of monitoring and enforcement raises concerns about the adequacy of nutrient management plans. The simulation of total phosphorus concentrations in surface water under traditional versus NMAN recommended application rates indicates a reduction. However, the total phosphorus concentrations in surface water during storm events are still above the Ontario's water quality standards.; From an institutional perspective, the value of the decision support system appears to improve the efficiency of reviewing building permit applications, and applicants are treated fairly. However, the quality of the decisions and ability to meet long-term water quality objectives remains problematic.; Keywords. Decision support system, land use planning, nutrient management.