| As a result of an increase in Army suicides from 2001 through 2008, the Secretary of the Army requested that the Army Science Board (ASB) investigate and recommend a path forward. In response, the ASB completed an extensive literature and data review, as well as a series of interviews with experts on suicide. Based on these, they (Gawron, Miller, Collier, Frager and Kornguth, 2009) identified questions related to potential risk factors for suicide and suicide attempts as well as the data sources to be used to address each question.;The military databases were made available to address the questions posed by the ASB. The data from the Total Army Personnel Database (TAPDB) were analyzed in this dissertation. The analysis included statistical methods as well as mathematical modeling. The statistical analysis was a set of Chi Square (chi 2) comparisons of TAPDB data on a sample of soldiers for the years 2004 through 2007. The variables which were found to be significantly correlated with suicide or attempt were analyzed further. Those responses that were given most often by the suicide/attempter in the year of the event were considered risk factors; those having fewer responses by the suicide/attempter were considered protective.;Mathematical modeling was performed using system dynamics techniques. The models are based on application of the multiple variables present in a system. These variables are connected through a model of causal loops, stocks and flows. The dynamic nature of the model simulates what happens when variables that have shown statistical significance in relation to suicide are applied. |
