| Risk has been characterized as a function of a potential threat, vulnerability to the threat, and the consequences were the threat to be carried out. In the context of terrorism, threats are the individuals who might wage an attack against a specific target; vulnerabilities are the people and targets whose safety is contingent upon the effectiveness of security policies; and consequences are the possible negative outcomes from an attack. The intent of this paper is to use different risk and decision analysis techniques to assist in the policy making relative to assessing these three different components that define terrorism risk.;First, a methodology is described for representing terrorist leader preferences for alternative attack strategies against the U.S. A multi-attribute utility model embedded within a Risk simulation model was developed to characterize terrorist motivations and values. Ultimately, relative likelihood of a terrorist attack is determined as a function of the terrorists' attack utility. While the model's outputs are mostly illustrative of the methodology used, the policy implications of the approach are considered.;Next, the threat of attacks on the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is analyzed. Terrorists are assumed to be using a radiological dispersal device (RDD, also known as a "dirty bomb") to shut down port operations and cause substantial economic and psychological impacts. The analysis is an exploratory investigation of a combination of several risk analysis tools, including scenario generation and pruning, project risk analysis, direct consequence modeling, and indirect economic impact assessment. The implications for countering a dirty bomb, including the protection of the radiological sources and intercepting an ongoing dirty bomb attack, are discussed.;Lastly, a compilation of three studies were conducted to assess how individuals perceive the risks of terrorism. The psychometric paradigm is employed to evaluate the influence of various predictor variables, both cognitive and emotional, on this calculation. Results describing the findings' policy implications on preparedness and response efforts, such as what efforts are needed to keep people educated about terrorism and how that information should be directed, are included. |
