Research On Early Warning Model Of Aviation Terrorism Crime Based On Threat Intelligence Theory

In recent years,with the development of social economy,the increasing demand for communication and connection between different regions has promoted the rapid development of the civil aviation industry.But the consequent security problems are also increasingly prominent.The scope of terrorist activities is expanding to this area,which seriously threatens the overall safety of the civil aviation industry.At present,the domestic civil aviation early warning mainly focuses on emergency rescue in the matter,and there is a lack of research on early warning and assessment of the situation of pre-terrorist threats.Therefore,it is an important part of aviation anti-terrorism work to establish effective early warning assessment model and prevent aviation terrorism in time.The key and core of this paper is to build an early warning model of the crime of aviation terrorism.The main work of this article is as follows: first,the characteristics and trends of the crime of air terrorism are analyzed in depth.Through the analysis of typical cases,the characteristics of the consequences,the diversity of means and the goal enlargement of aviation terrorism crime are summarized.At the same time,combined with the current trend of crime,it summarizes the current situation and problems of early warning in China.Second,we should set up an early warning index system for aviation terrorism.According to the above problems,we need to establish a targeted and practical index system.Therefore,in the construction,this paper takes three main factors as the ability,intention and opportunity of threatening information as the theoretical basis,and analyzes the typical cases synthetically.First,using the content analysis method and the semi structural interview method,the early warning index system includes three first grade indexes,eight two level indexes and twenty-four three level indexes.Then the weight of each index is scientifically determined by analytic hierarchy process.Third,we should scientifically classify the early warning level of aviation terrorism.On the basis of the index system,through the threat analysis and evaluation of the previous cases,and referring to the standards of the classification of the current social emergencies,the threat level of the early warning of the crime of aviation terrorism is divided into four levels,and different levels of countermeasures are proposed to rationally deal with the different levels of police situation..Fourth,the example test and application of the early warning model.In order to test the practicability and scientificity of the model,the transformation of intelligence cases is carried out in this paper.At the same time,according to the index attributes of the acquired Threat Intelligence,the threat analysis and threat assessment of specific information are carried out by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and different grades are determined,so as to effectively predict and test the threat information of air terrorism.