Evaluating third party intervention in Estonia, Moldova and Ukraine: The case for multidimensional prevention

Why do some efforts to contain the escalation of internal conflict succeed, while others fail? What, if any, steps may be taken by a third party to prevent violent conflict? This study addresses these questions and offers new insight into how third parties can effectively intervene in internal conflicts to prevent the outbreak of violence.; Three cases of internal conflict, Estonia, Moldova and Ukraine, occur in the same time frame, in roughly the same geopolitical space with many of the same demographic and socio-political characteristics, yet nonetheless vary dramatically in their outcomes. I argue this variation is due to the differences in third party action in each case, and propose a theory of multidimensional prevention to explain why third party efforts to prevent the escalation of violent conflict fail or succeed. This theory builds upon the existing preventive diplomacy literature in two ways. First, it overcomes the shortcomings of current theory, unable, in these three cases, to account for the decisions taken by the rebelling group by recognizing that effective policy requires efforts that focus on a dual track of increasing available alternatives to violence and on removing opportunities to use force. In all three of the case studies, it was the removal of the opportunity to use force that was decisive in determining whether or not the rebelling group would pursue armed rebellion, even when this was not the most important criteria for winning government cooperation.; Second, the theory of multidimensional prevention goes beyond the traditional view of conflict management that foresees a greater mix of incentives at lower levels of tension, and a greater mix of sanctions as conflicts escalate to the level of crisis or war. Multidimensional prevention argues that, in creating alternative political processes while simultaneously removing the opportunities available to reject those processes, the third party must focus on both incentives and on sanctions throughout the intervention, whether tensions are relatively low or on the brink of war. This study concludes that applying a multidimensional prevention model to an escalating conflict produces a wider range of policy prescriptions that, ultimately, are more likely to succeed.