Immigration multiplier: A new method of measuring the immigration process

There have been numerous studies of the impact of post-1965 U.S. immigration policies on the significant growth of the U.S. population since 1965. Some of these studies have explored chain migration generally while others have attempted to estimate quantitatively a value for the immigration multiplier for chain migration. The only systematic demographic calculation method for immigration multiplier was proposed in 1986 by Jasso and Rosenzweig, who used an INS data set of individual administrative records that is not readily available to the public. The method of Jasso and Rosenzweig drew some debate due to its limitations. Given the complicated nature of the immigration multiplier, no effective calculation methods have been proposed since the debate. In this dissertation, I develop a relatively simple method for the calculation of the immigration multiplier to measure chain migration using the Public Use Microdata Sample from the U.S. Census and published INS data for the last thirty years. With the introduction of the Immigration Multiplier, this research has also introduced the Immigration Unification Multiplier for measuring the unification part of chain migration (focusing on family reunifications) and the Immigration Reproduction Multiplier for measuring the reproduction phase of the chain migration (focusing on immigrant fertility). This research has presented the Immigration Multiplier as the product of the Immigration Unification Multiplier and the Immigration Reproduction Multiplier, or the combined total number of the first- and second-generation individuals contributed respectively by the original principal immigrants. Using this new Immigration Multiplier, this research has performed extensive analysis and some simulations that provide the estimated multiplier effect of migration chains under various scenarios. Simulation models were built based on the immigration characteristics as well as the feasibility of interventions (e.g. the elimination of the sponsorship of siblings of U.S. citizens and its impact). This research has demonstrated that the chain immigration process does exist in the U.S., and the chain immigration patterns vary by country of origin. The research also suggests that the future sponsorship of family members is determined by the combination of U.S. immigration policy, the social and cultural characteristics of countries from which the immigrants came.