Characterizing and modeling the recreation use of distance segmented USDA Forest Service visitors

The recreation behavior, consumption patterns, and activity participation of visitors to land managed by the USDA Forest Service (USDA FS) is highly variable. To adequately manage and plan for recreation at the local level, USDA FS natural resource managers must identify the types and extent of recreation use at individual national forests. This study presents an approach to segmenting and modeling the recreation use of national forest visitors that informs recreation management and planning decisions. Under the adopted segmentation framework, national forest visitors are classified into distance-based visitor segments based upon the proximity of their home to national forest visited. Three distance segments are recognized: Local, Mid-distance, and Long-distance. Local visitors live very close to the national forest, Mid-distance visitors live within a moderate drive of the forest resource, and Long-distance visitors live in the "rest of the world". Using visitor survey data obtained for USDA FS regions 2 and 9 via the National Visitor Use Monitoring (NVUM) project, visitors in the three segments are characterized in terms of their recreation behavior, consumption patterns, and activity participation. Statistical tests are completed to determine differences in visitor characteristics both between study regions and between the visitor segments themselves. Few statistical differences are found between study region after accounting for differences due to visitor segmentation and trip type. Capitalizing on the segmentation framework, recreation use models are developed to predict the forest-level recreation use of Local and Mid-distance recreation segments. Models of Local segment recreation use predict visitation based upon local population counts, participation rates and annual visit frequencies. The recreation use of Mid-distance visitors is modeled via multi-site zonal travel cost models. Separate zonal travel cost models were estimated for Mid-distance day trips and Mid-distance overnight trips. While the parameters and coefficients of the constructed models were consistent with theory, evaluation of model prediction proved inconclusive.