Assessing the role of industrial and demographic change on regional economic health---a case study of Greater Boston

Academics and public policy makers have long focused on changes in the industrial and occupational structure of the United States and what these shifts mean for matching workers with potential job opportunities. These issues have come under increased focus recently for two main reasons: the high unemployment rates experienced in the U.S. during the so-called "Great Recession" and the impending retirement of the baby boomer generation over the next two decades.;Using the Greater Boston labor market as a case study, the current research looks at labor market conditions in 2009 and projections for 2016. Employing job competition theory this dissertation examined issues of skills mismatch, unemployment, job vacancies, and potential labor shortages in the regional labor market. The current research found evidence of a "credential mismatch" in the 2009 regional labor market. Workers in Greater Boston tended to be more educated than jobs often required. As a result, employers appeared to increase educational requirements for all occupations. The end result is that workers in the region with less than a college education were passed over for employment opportunities, even if their education levels and previous work experience suggested they were suited for the job in question. These results point to potential problems for adult job training programs and community colleges. While these programs provide valuable training and credential acquisition for modestly skilled adults, the regional labor queue often places these workers in direct competition with individuals with college degrees for so-called "middle-skill" occupations.;As for 2016, the current research projects possible labor shortages in the region, particularly if employers maintain their currently elevated education standards for available positions. The possibility of labor shortages are directly related to the aging of the baby boom population, as 138% of the projected labor force growth in the region will occur among workers 55 years or age or older. These projections underscore the importance of growing the regional labor force, including increasing labor force participation rates and encouraging domestic in-migration and international immigration.