Ripeness and conflict resolution through direct negotiations in South Africa

The peaceful resolution of the South African conflict through direct negotiations remains one of the most astonishing events of the twentieth century. The presidential inauguration of Nelson Mandela, one of the greatest charismatic leaders this century has known, marked the end of more than three centuries of white minority rule in the country. The peaceful nature of the transfer of power stunned the world. All previous predictions about political change in South Africa failed to materialize. What transpired was different from what scores of theories had led us to expect.; This dissertation examines the possible factors and conditions which best explain the success and failure of direct negotiations in South Africa. Such an inquiry is important to increase our understanding of how political actors can rid the world of deadly and devastating conflicts. By employing the method of structured, focused comparison to examine two attempts of direct negotiations to resolve the South African conflict, this dissertation argues that factors such as economic sanctions, the collapse of communism and the decay of apartheid were critical to bringing the parties to the bargaining table, but they were not decisive in determining the outcomes of direct negotiations. They were necessary but not sufficient. The factors that best explain the success and failure of direct negotiations are power, leadership and interpersonal relationships between the two main parties to the conflict, the African National Congress (ANC) and the National Party (NP) Government.; The findings of this dissertation imply that individuals matter in conflict resolution. Even if the objective conditions for direct negotiations can be favorable to positive outcomes, there is no substitute for strong leadership, willing and determined to take the risks necessary for the sake of peace. The results suggest that efforts to resolve conflicts through direct negotiations will be significantly enhanced by focusing on the leading players. Conflict resolution is likely to be more effective if an accurate assessment of power, the perceptions and role of leading personalities is made, because decisions to start or end conflicts are made within the power structures of a government or movement.