Political theories of public policy making: A test of the ability of political theories to predict the features of the policy process

The importance of national security, the impact of defense decisions on internal and foreign affairs, and the cost to society of implementing defense policies make it important to understand the defense policy-making process.;The research hypotheses focus on the predictions each theory makes about the features of the policy process. The dissertation considers the participants in the process, their beliefs, the ways they use information and interact, and the impact of external conditions. It applies the case-study approach and qualitative methods to study policy making in the area of national missile defense. The research follows two paths: analysis of the history of missile defense of the United States and structured interviews with key participants within the defense policy community. It tests the hypotheses by comparing the observed and/or reported features of the policy process in a pattern-matching mode with the characteristics predicted by the rival policy theories.;The research shows that neither theory fully describes the policy-making process. Each predicts some of the features of policy making quite well, yet fails to predict others. The dissertation supports a revised theory that models the policy-making situation as a dynamic balance among need, strategy, policy, and political acceptability. The resulting policy balance theory helps explain the connections between the policy-making process and its outcome. This dissertation applies this understanding to offer suggestions to improve the practice of policy making in general. As an illustration, it also applies the insights of the theory to the national missile defense problem.;The dissertation examines two theories that explain the policy process in political terms: Sabatier's advocacy coalitions theory and Kingdon's policy streams theory. Paul A. Sabatier views policy change as an evolutionary process, theorizing that individuals who share fundamental beliefs about problems, goals, and the means to achieve them form coalitions and work together to achieve their aims over time. John W. Kingdon regards policy change as resulting from the fortuitous coupling of relatively independent streams of problems, policy, and politics. The research questions how these theories compare in their ability to predict the policy-making process for national missile defense.