Economically motivated voting across regions and eras in American presidential elections, 1932-1992

Economically motivated voting is an individual or collective electoral choice that is influenced by the personal finances of voters, or by economic conditions in some large part of the nation. This study investigates temporal and regional variations in economically motivated voting for presidential candidates, using data that are aggregated at the state level for the 1932-1992 period. Least-squares linear regression estimates of pooled data for votes, incumbency, and real personal income per capita provide a series of findings that are evaluated for two political eras, 1932-1964 and 1968-1992, and for nine political regions.;The study demonstrates that the aggregate responses of voters to the economy have changed over time. In the early era, voters treated the parties similarly, rewarding candidates of incumbent parties when the economy grew and punishing them when it performed poorly. In the recent era, voters have rewarded Republicans more than Democrats.;Additionally, electoral responses to the economy are not uniform across political regions. In each era, electoral sensitivity to the economy has varied by region in ways that confer advantages to one or the other political party. In the recent era, seven regions have given Republican incumbents an advantage in states that comprise three-quarters of the Electoral College vote.;Recently, temporal change and regional distinctiveness have combined to disadvantage the Democratic party when state electorates vote on the national economy. Regional voting has evolved in ways that call for Democratic incumbents to deliver unrealistically high rates of real growth in personal income.