A political struggle model of welfare state growth in the context of dependent capitalism: Social Security in Mexico, 1945-1985

Despite overwhelming obstacles, several developing countries have made important strides towards providing for the basic needs of the masses. In Latin America, these gains can be traced to the institutionalization of Social Security. Social Security is commonly regarded the hallmark of the twentieth century welfare state. This dissertation examines the processes which account for the expansion of Social Security in Mexico from 1945 to 1985. More specifically, I examine the utility of a political struggle model of welfare state expansion in the context of dependent capitalism. The political struggle model focuses attention on the conditions which invest nonelites with the political power to secure social insurance from Third World states. Using a national-level time-series design, the analysis uncovers evidence that both labor militancy and opposition party politics have been effective strategies in the struggle for Social Security benefits. However, the relative importance of these strategies varies over time. Specifically, the efficacy of strikes has faded in the context of Mexico's recent economic collapse while opposition party politics has become increasingly important in prompting social security reforms. Using a pooled time-series design, this analysis also explores the determinants of state-level variation in social security coverage. I find that export-oriented agriculture invests rural populations with political power vis-a-vis the state, regardless of the level of insurgency. In other words, social security coverage for rural workers is highest in agro-export states, at least until 1972. In 1973, a new pattern of social security coverage emerges with the institutionalization of Solidaridad Social. This program was implemented with the promise that basic health care would become more widely available to the neediest rural communities. While motivated by electoral insurgency, public health officials who administer the program seem to have channeled the resources of Solidaridad Social as promised: namely, to marginalized rural communities otherwise neglected by the state. These findings suggest political struggle and electoral insurgency may create political opportunities for the rural poor, whether or not they themselves actively mobilize against the state.