| A major problem in strategic planning in both public and industry sectors is how to ensure long-run sustainability of economic activities by integrating environmental considerations into models of economic and development processes. Since the mid-1980s, a vast literature has evolved in several fields regarding the concept of sustainable development. A majority of these, however, remain qualitative and divided along disciplinary lines. What is often missing is how the global policy concept can be made operational at the regional-to-local level. As in Maryland's Eastern Shore region, potential conflicts often exist between the objectives for economic growth and conservation of agricultural land and marine resources that provide high value-added products and services for the economy.;This research presents a non-linear system dynamics modeling scheme that explores how agricultural land resources are transformed over time within an integrated system. The modular structure of the system is defined in terms of the relevant social, economic, technological, and environmental components. The interrelationships are specified in terms of their temporal and spatial behavior and feedback within and from outside the region. Sustainable development strategies are embedded by changes in the feedback conditions (stocks and flows) across all system modules. These changes involve the modules for grain commodity production cycle, land resource-use and productive capacities, and land and marine pollution. Strategies and scenario simulations include conditions for investments, technological advancement, resource recovery, and concern for future generations.;The simulation results from 1970 to 2020 show patterns of behavior that are characteristics of complex systems undergoing co-evolution and self-organization, largely attributable to the open character of the region and the external determinants of growth. For the Shore Region, sustainability requires a comprehensive set of policies for growth management, environmental controls, technological advancement, and social discount rate for monetary investment over time periods of multi-generational length. These necessitate a trade-off between short-term and long-term economic gains and land resource conservation. The contribution of this approach is that the strategic planning problem is set in an interdisciplinary and complex dynamic framework, so that it is viewed as part of an evolutionary continuum. This provides a better understanding of the behavior underlying long-term co-evolution of socio-economic, natural, and development processes, and offers a better guide for policy actions aimed at sustainable development of regional resources. Future extensions of the model include spatial analysis and multi-objective decision-making at the farm-enterprise level. |
