| Nuclear proliferation has been a subject of concern since the United States first exploded atomic weapons over Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August, 1945. But nuclear weapons have spread at a far lower rate than was once anticipated. Why has this been so?;This study develops an inventory of propositions from secondary literature about nuclear proliferation incentives and constraints. From this comprehensive inventory are derived eight dimensions of proliferation. Once a state has acquired the necessary technology and material to develop weapons, the critical factors that motivate proliferation are insecurity, alliance protection, and a threat of national extinction.;The eight dimensions are then evaluated with respect to two critical states, India and Pakistan, both of which are on the brink of developing nuclear weapons. Extensive interviews were conducted in the United States, India, and Pakistan of senior Indian, Pakistani, and American military officials, diplomats, politicians, scholars, and journalists. Based on these interviews, it is clear that Indians and Pakistanis feel themselves caught in a dilemma. Although the initial motivation for developing weapons was indeed found to be insecurity, as expected, it is generally assumed that the effect of proliferation will in fact be to render both states even less secure than they were before beginning their nuclear programs.;India and Pakistan are a critical pair of states as they are in a position to assess the probable consequences of nuclear proliferation and back away from it. In so doing, they could set an example to other states of why nuclear proliferation is not in the security interest of nations.;There is a vast but ad hoc literature on the incentives for states to develop nuclear weapons and the constraints on doing so. Most studies of nuclear proliferation have focused on means of preventing the further spread of nuclear technology or on individual case studies. There has been less attention paid to the systematic study of nuclear proliferation incentives and constraints, to comparative analyses, and to assessments of possible effects rather than causes of proliferation. This dissertation focuses on these three areas. |
