SIMULATION OF A FOOD SECURITY SYSTEM IN NORTHEAST ASIA, SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE OCEANIA

Despite a continuing trend of decline in rates of population growth, the total world population by the end of this century is estimated to be around 6.5 billion, nearly 5 billion of which will be in the developing countries. The growing population will cause increasing pressure not only on basic amenities such as living space, health and education, but also on world food supplies.;The patterns of deviation in quantities of rice and other food grains available for year-to-year consumption serve as the basis for analysis of potential food security reserves. The computer Master Projection Program (MPJ) is applied to measure needs for food security reserves by country and region based on historical patterns of food grain production, international trade and utilization as they have existed during the period 1961-1979. Simulated alternative food security reserve programs are used to evaluate reserve transactions as means of offsetting excessive overruns and shortfalls. Taking into consideration the size of reserve transactions, reserve stock levels and the benefits from stability in year-to-year food supplies, targeted 3-percent maximum deviation was selected for testing.;Alternatives evaluated include: (1) Security reserves of rice only, (2) Security reserves of other food grains, and (3) Security reserves of all food grains. All of these alternatives include a mix of in-country and regional reserves. Analyses were made using historical trade on one hand and assuming stabilizing trade adjustments on the other. . . . (Author's abstract exceeds stipulated maximum length. Discontinued here with permission of author.) UMI.;The food crisis of 1972-76 has provided opportunities for a more thorough assessment of world food prospects. At a World Food Conference in Rome in November 1974, a majority of the nations of the world accepted a resolution calling for the creation of grain stocks on a national basis as the central elements in an "international undertaking on world food security." It is believed that, by approaching the security reserve program jointly, member countries can achieve targeted levels of stability in food grain supplies much more efficiently than each could do alone. This study tests how a national and regional food reserve system could have worked in Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and the Oceania had it been in operation since 1961-1979.