A SOCIAL ACCOUNTING SYSTEM AND SIMULATION MODEL FOR ANALYZING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY CHOICES FOR OKLAHOMA AND PROJECTING ECONOMIC VARIABLES FROM 1972 TO 2000

Scope and Method of Study. The objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive energy information system for Oklahoma for 1972 and to integrate this information into a dynamic input-output and simulation model for purposes of evaluating alternative energy choices and projecting economic variables such as employment, income, government revenues and expenditures and state gross product. Population and production of energy are projected independently and linked to the model. The data base is estimated from secondary data sources and consists of five final demand sectors and 81 processing sectors of which 77 are demand determined non-energy sectors and four are supply determined energy sectors. The model includes five accounts: interindustry, capital, human resources, government, and energy. The Oklahoma economy from 1972 to 2000 is simulated by a system of difference equations arranged in recursive sequence that determine baseline sector output, employment, income, value added, state government revenues and expenditures, gross state product, and energy use and trade. Impact analyses are carried out assuming a 25 percent increase in growth rates of energy production from petroleum products, natural gas and coal and a 25 percent increase in energy efficiency by the year 2000.;The results of the impact analysis of a 25 percent increase in the rate of growth of energy production from petroleum products and natural gas, compared to the baseline projection, indicate an increase in total energy trade equal to 71,285,753 billion BTU's. Employment is projected to increase by 2,606 and income by ;Findings and Conclusions. A baseline projection of the state economy indicates that population, employment, income, government revenues and expenditures, and state gross product increase steadily from 1973 to 2000. Most of the increase in energy consumption is from natural gas and petroleum products followed by electricity and coal. Total energy trade declines from 1973 to 2000. Trade projections in petroleum products and natural gas decline steadily from 1973 to 2000 and indicated a net deficit in 1999 for petroleum products. Trade projections in coal increase steadily.