AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF MIGRATION IN THE UNITED STATES: REPEAT MOVEMENTS AND FAMILIES

The purpose of this study is to propose and estimate a micro model of repeat and family migration based on a human capital framework. The major innovations of the work are the formal theory of remigration in an economic context and the explicit recognition of the family decision making structure.;Chapter III offers a theoretical model which structures migration within the human capital theory of life cycle investment. Migration is treated as a special form of investment, which yields a return to the moving unit in proportion to the investment made in information prior to the move. Locations are briefly discussed as "bundles" of characteristics, and movements for nonmonetized locational characteristics are related to an economic framework. Identification of the gains to migration as the outcome of a search process is shown to imply a periodic, rather than once-and-for-all, migration decision. Both the level and the period of migration are related to the parameters of the model. Finally, a family decision structure is overlaid on the basic model, and modifications necessary to implement the changes are discussed. The family section concentrates on an equal partner decision structure, and suggests factors within the model which might cause the assumed equality to break down.;Chapter IV discusses the major endogenous variables of the theoretical chapter, and relates them to the actual measure used. The main characteristics of the data set, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, are presented and the formation of the migration subsample is explained.;A two equation ordinary least squares/logit econometric model is formulated to test the implications of the theoretical model. One equation provides a technique to estimate the potential returns to migration for all persons, regardless of whether they move or not. The second equation uses the results of the first to calculate the potential gain and to estimate its impact on the probability of movement. Repeat migration and family decision making are interpreted with reference to the coefficients of the move/not move equation. A number of estimating techniques are used to approach the inherent simultaneity of the basic model.;The dissertation is arranged in six chapters. Chapter I introduces the two basic questions of the study, and outlines the general approach followed. Chapter II surveys migrature literature, emphasizing economic research with brief consideration of other disciplines. Following a discussion of the major branches of migration theory, a definition of migration is proposed and analyzed. The correspondence between different components of the definition and actual measures typically used is examined. Statistical and empirical problems regarding the use of migration data are introduced.;Chapter V presents the empirical results of the study. It was found that migrant husbands achieve both higher income and wage gains than nonmigrants. Migrant wives were more likely to lose upon movement than gain. Male gains increased the likelihood of migration, while female gains had a much lesser impact on the family migration decision. It appeared that the family weighting system was heavily biased toward the husband's labor market situation. Results concerning repeat migration were mixed. Migration in the previous year was associated with a higher probability of migration in the following year, but more complicated forms of the periodicity relationship did not conform to expectations.;A final chapter summarizes the analysis and offers questions for future study.